等待需求旺季启动能源化工

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Weekly Summary: PX prices remained sluggish due to insufficient cost support, with multiple domestic and international PX plants restarting and overall supply on the rise. PTA prices fluctuated at a low level as there were no unexpected news, and the impact of planned PTA plant maintenance on the market had been overdrawn. Downstream polyester sales increased last weekend, relieving inventory pressure, and some polyester factories replenished stocks during the week, following the pulse law [9]. - Market Forecast: Geopolitical conflicts will amplify market uncertainties, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate widely. PX is expected to remain volatile within the range of 6,650 - 6,850 yuan/ton, and PTA within 4,650 - 4,850 yuan/ton. The recommendation is to stay on the sidelines [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Price Situation - PX Futures: Without unexpected news, prices continued to be sluggish. The closing price of the PX main contract on August 15 was 6,688 yuan/ton, down 38 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of -0.56%. The settlement price on August 15 was 6,682 yuan/ton, down 66 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of -0.98%. The average basis of the main contract from August 11 - 15 was -67 yuan/ton, and the average domestic spot price of PX was 6,659.6 yuan/ton, down 81.8 yuan/ton from the previous period, a change of -1.21% [13][15][16]. - PTA Futures: There were no unexpected changes, and prices were at a low level. The closing price of the PTA main contract on August 15 was 4,716 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of 0.68%. The settlement price on August 15 was 4,708 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from August 8, a change of 0.42%. The average basis of the main contract from August 11 - 15 was -3.50 yuan/ton. The weekly average CIF price of PTA in the Chinese market was 594.8 US dollars/ton, up 0.4 US dollars/ton from the previous period, a change of 0%. The average spot price of PTA in the East China market was 4,681.8 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous period [18][20][23]. 2. Device Operation Status - PX Devices: Multiple domestic and international PX plants restarted, and the supply gradually recovered. The domestic operating rate of PX from August 11 - 15 was 84.97%, up from 82.01% from August 4 - 8 [32]. - PTA Devices: Some PTA plants carried out planned maintenance, and the overall supply was sufficient. The weekly operating rate decreased by 0.91%. For example, Ningbo Taihua's 120 - ton PTA plant restarted on August 7 after maintenance, and Hainan Yisheng's 200 - ton plant started maintenance on August 1 and was expected to last until November 1 [35][36]. 3. Fundamental Analysis - Cost: Crude oil prices were affected by geopolitical factors and market supply - demand expectations, showing a weak trend. WTI crude oil's futures settlement price on August 15 was 62.80 US dollars/barrel, down 1.08 US dollars/barrel from August 8. Brent crude oil's futures settlement price on August 15 was 65.85 US dollars/barrel, down 0.74 US dollars/barrel from August 8. Naphtha prices oscillated, and the economic situation remained stalemate. The weekly average price of PX spot was 831.08 US dollars/ton (CFR China Main Port), a change of -0.89% from the previous period [43][48][51]. - Supply: The processing margin of PX remained at a high level in the industrial chain, with the PXN weekly average at 262.05 yuan/ton, a change of -0.89% from the previous period. The PTA processing margin was in a loss state across the industry. As of August 15, the social inventory of PTA was 4.502 million tons, down 0.8 million tons from the previous week, and the change in the year - on - year growth rate was 0.26% [52][56][62]. - Demand: The prices of polyester products were affected by the decline in crude oil and PTA prices. The average market prices of semi - bright POY150D/48F, DTY150D/48F, and FDY150D/96F were 6,735 yuan/ton, 7,940 yuan/ton, and 7,085 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of -0.15%, -0.19%, and +0.93% from the previous period. The average weekly production and sales of polyester from August 11 - 15 were estimated to be 60%. The inventory of polyester filament decreased slightly, and the shipment speed of grey fabrics was generally slow, with the number of market inquiries decreasing compared to the previous period [67][75][81].