甲醇周报：偏弱震荡为主-20250819

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly assign an investment rating to the methanol industry but suggests a bearish outlook, advising to sell high on rallies [5][43] Core Viewpoints - The methanol market is expected to remain in a weak and volatile state, and it is recommended to sell high on rallies. The valuation of methanol is relatively high, and there is downward pressure on prices due to increased supply and weak downstream demand [5][43] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - From August 1 to August 15, methanol prices trended lower. After the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in coking coal, methanol prices returned to a weak fundamental state, with increasing supply putting downward pressure on prices [5][10][43] 2. Basis and Spread - In the East China region, the spot price has been continuously at a discount to the futures price. The 09 - 01 spread has been decreasing, maintaining a C - shaped structure in the monthly spread. On August 1, the basis in East China was - 23 yuan/ton, and on August 15, it was - 6 yuan/ton. The 09 - 01 spread was - 92 yuan/ton on August 1, and - 96 yuan/ton on August 15 [11] 3. Supply - side Analysis 3.1 Cost and Operation - Coal - to - methanol profit remains high. Although the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises declined slightly, it is still at a year - on - year high. Most maintenance devices are expected to restart from late August to late September, so the upstream operating rate is expected to gradually increase. As of August 15, the closing price of Qinhuangdao steam coal was 696 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton from August 1, and the FOB price of Datong steam coal was 630 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton from August 1. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of coal - to - methanol enterprises was 77.68%, a decrease of 1.13 percentage points from the previous period, and an increase of 1.04 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of gas - to - methanol enterprises was 50.79%, an increase of 0.78 percentage points from the previous period, and a decrease of 5.73 percentage points year - on - year [14] 3.2 Inventory - The inventory accumulation rate at East China ports has accelerated. As of the week of August 14, the inventory at East China ports was 56.33 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.25 tons and a year - on - year increase of 7.56 tons; the inventory at South China ports was 32.78 tons, a week - on - week increase of 3.53 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.65 tons. Inland inventory in the northwest region decreased to a low level. As of the week of August 13, the inventory in the northwest region was 18.25 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 9.87 tons [21] 4. Demand - side Analysis 4.1 MTO Demand - The operating rate of MTO remained relatively high. As of August 14, the weekly operating rate of downstream methanol - to - olefin was 81.41%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 1.51 percentage points year - on - year; the weekly operating rate of enterprises that purchase methanol externally for olefin production was 76.92%, an increase of 0.52 percentage points from the previous period and an increase of 7.38 percentage points year - on - year. However, MTO enterprises have a high inventory of methanol raw materials, about 68 tons, so the demand for further inventory building is low [26] 4.2 Traditional Demand - The traditional downstream industries of methanol, including acetic acid, MTBE, formaldehyde, and dimethyl ether, experienced a decline in operating rates last week, mainly due to the significant decline in acetic acid production. Overall, downstream profits are still poor, and the ability to accept high - priced methanol is limited. Currently, it is in a pre - peak season decline, and attention should be paid to the performance during the peak season from September to October [34] 5. Summary and Outlook - The methanol market has been in a weak and volatile state since early August. The report maintains a bearish view on methanol, suggesting selling high on rallies. The 01 contract is expected to trade in the range of 2300 - 2500, and it is recommended to sell high on rallies [5][43]