黑色金属日报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: Not clearly defined [1] - Hot Rolled Coil: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆, indicating a relatively clear long/short trend and a current appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Coking Coal: ★☆☆, representing a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Silicon Manganese: Not clearly defined [1] - Silicon Iron: ★☆★, with an unclear specific meaning in the context provided [1] Core Viewpoints - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with the real - estate sector showing a decline in sales and investment, and the growth of infrastructure and manufacturing slowing down. However, steel exports remain at a relatively high level. The short - term trading floor of steel is suppressed by weak demand, but the decline may slow down after continuous adjustments [2] - The short - term fundamentals of iron ore have limited contradictions. The market's optimistic sentiment has cooled due to weak real - world demand, and the trading floor is expected to fluctuate at a high level [3] - The short - term volatility of coke and coking coal prices is large, and the downward space is relatively small. Their prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations [4][6] - The price of silicon manganese is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of coking coal. The price bottom is gradually rising [7] - The price of silicon iron is mainly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and follows the trend of silicon manganese [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - The trading floor continued to decline today. In the off - season, the apparent demand for thread decreased, production slightly declined, and inventory accumulation accelerated significantly. The apparent demand for hot - rolled coil improved, production slightly increased, and the inventory accumulation rhythm slowed down. The pig iron output remained high, and the negative feedback expectation increased. Considering the approaching parade, attention should be paid to the production - restriction intensity in Tangshan and other places [2] Iron Ore - The trading floor fluctuated today. On the supply side, the global shipment of iron ore increased seasonally, stronger than the same period last year, the domestic arrival volume increased month - on - month, and port inventory continued to rise. On the demand side, the apparent demand for steel decreased, pig iron output slightly increased, and steel mills had high profit ratios and lacked the motivation to actively reduce production. In the short term, iron ore demand was still supported by high pig iron output, but there was an expectation of pig iron production reduction in the future [3] Coke - The price fluctuated mainly within the day. Due to the approaching major event, there was an expectation of production restriction for coking plants in East China. After the seventh round of price increase, the coking profit improved, and the daily coking output slightly increased. The overall coke inventory continued to decline, and traders had a good purchasing intention [4] Coking Coal - The price fluctuated mainly within the day. The output of coking coal mines decreased, the spot trading market remained at a good level, and the transaction price mainly increased. The terminal inventory remained flat, and the total coking coal inventory decreased month - on - month. There was a high probability of continuous inventory reduction in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - The price declined within the day. Attention should be paid to the shipment of South32's Australian mines. The pig iron output remained at a high level, the weekly production of silicon manganese continued to increase, and the inventory did not accumulate. In the long - term, manganese ore is expected to accumulate inventory in the second half of the year [7] Silicon Iron - The price declined within the day. The pig iron output slightly decreased but remained above 240. The export demand remained at about 30,000 tons, with a marginal impact. The metal magnesium output decreased slightly month - on - month, and the secondary demand decreased marginally. The supply of silicon iron continued to increase significantly, and the on - balance - sheet inventory decreased slightly [8]