化工日报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Urea: Not rated - Methanol: ★☆☆ [1] - Pure Benzene: Not rated - Styrene: Not rated - Polypropylene: ☆☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: Not rated - Caustic Soda: Not rated - PX: Not rated - PTA: ☆☆☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Not rated - Short Fiber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Glass: ☆☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: Not rated - Bottle Chip: Not rated - Propylene: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefin and polyolefin futures contracts showed different trends. The olefin futures declined, while the polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply and demand fundamentals of polyolefins were weak, putting pressure on prices [2]. - The pure benzene and styrene markets had their own characteristics. The pure benzene market was expected to improve in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. The styrene market had cost support but limited unilateral drive [3]. - In the polyester market, PX and PTA had different price trends, and the polyester industry was expected to increase its load. Ethylene glycol was in short - term low - level oscillation, and short - fiber was recommended for long - term configuration [4]. - The methanol market was in a weak trend, and the urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment [5]. - The PVC market was weak, and the caustic soda market had short - term support but long - term supply pressure [6]. - The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the glass market was expected to be near the cost line [7]. Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Olefin futures: The main contracts of olefin futures closed down. There were both start - up and shutdown plans for devices. The inventory pressure of producers was relatively controllable, and the downstream demand was general [2]. - Polyolefin futures: The main contracts of polyolefin futures oscillated weakly. The supply of polyethylene decreased slightly, and the demand improvement was limited. The supply of polypropylene was expected to increase, and the demand was weak [2]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene: The pure benzene market was expected to improve seasonally in the third - quarter mid - late stage but face pressure in the fourth quarter. It was recommended to operate on the monthly spread [3]. - Styrene: The styrene market had cost support, but the unilateral drive was limited. The domestic production was expected to increase [3]. Polyester - PX - PTA: The price of PX increased slightly, and the PX - PTA spread shrank. The polyester industry was expected to increase its load, and the PX supply - demand was expected to improve [4]. - Ethylene glycol: The ethylene glycol price was above 4400 yuan/ton. The port inventory increased, and it was in short - term low - level oscillation [4]. - Short fiber: The short - fiber supply - demand was stable, and it was recommended for long - term configuration and monthly spread positive arbitrage [4]. - Bottle chip: The bottle - chip processing spread oscillated at a low level, and over - capacity limited the repair space [4]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol: The methanol market continued to decline, and the port inventory was expected to reach a historical high in the third - quarter end [5]. - Urea: The urea market was affected by export news and market sentiment. The supply - demand was loose in the short term [5]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC: The PVC market was weak. The export competition pressure increased, the supply was high, and the demand was insufficient [6]. - Caustic soda: The caustic soda market had short - term support from replenishment demand but long - term supply pressure [6]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash: The soda ash market was in a long - term oversupply situation, and the price was under pressure [7]. - Glass: The glass market was expected to be near the cost line, and the short - term real - world trading was weak [7].