软商品日报-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cotton: ★☆☆ [1] - Pulp: ★☆☆ [1] - Sugar: ☆☆☆ [1] - Apple: ☆☆☆ [1] - Timber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Natural Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - 20 - rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] - Butadiene Rubber: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, most commodities are in a state where short - term trends are relatively balanced, and the current market operability is poor, so it is recommended to wait and see [1][9] 3. Summary by Commodity Cotton & Cotton Yarn - Zhengzhou cotton slightly declined today, and the spot sales basis of cotton remained stable with average spot trading volume. The trading of pure cotton yarn improved, and prices were slightly stronger [2] - In July, the inventory digestion in China slowed down, but it is expected to improve in August due to the approaching peak season. Tight inventory still supports prices [2] - In July, China's cotton imports were still at a low level, with 50,000 tons imported, a year - on - year decrease of 149,400 tons and a month - on - month increase of 22,600 tons. From January to July 2025, the cumulative imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2% or 1.48 million tons [2] - There is a strong expectation of increased production in Xinjiang in the new season, with an increase in planting area and generally ideal weather [2] - The short - term upward momentum of Zhengzhou cotton is limited by weak downstream orders and poor profits of most inland enterprises. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [2] Sugar - Overnight, US sugar fluctuated. The production data of central - southern Brazil in the second half of July was bullish, with a year - on - year decrease in sugarcane crushing volume and the impact of declining yield continuing to show [3] - In the short term, due to the possible lower - than - expected sugar production in Brazil, the US sugar price may stabilize and rebound. In the medium term, the US sugar futures price has not bottomed out [3] - Domestically, Zhengzhou sugar fluctuated. The sales rhythm this year is fast, inventory is down year - on - year, and spot pressure is relatively light [3] - The market's trading focus has shifted to imports and the output estimate of the next crushing season. The import volume of syrup has decreased significantly this year, reducing the sales pressure on domestic sugar. However, the output forecast for the 25/26 crushing season is uncertain, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather and sugarcane growth [3] Apple - The futures price fluctuated. Early - maturing apples started to be listed. Due to high temperatures this year, coloring was slow, fruit size was small, and the quantity of high - quality goods was small, so prices were high [4] - As of August 14, the national cold - storage apple inventory was 461,300 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 49.4%. Last week, the national cold - storage apple destocking volume was 50,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32.31% [4] - The market's trading focus has shifted to the output estimate of the new season. Although the western producing areas were affected by cold snaps and strong winds during the flowering period this year, the impact on output was small, mainly increasing the risk of fruit rust. There are still differences in the output estimate, and it is recommended to wait and see [4] 20 - rubber, Natural Rubber & Synthetic Rubber - Today, RU, NR, and BR all fluctuated strongly. The current prices of domestic natural rubber and synthetic rubber were stable, and the prices in the Thai raw material market mostly rose [6] - Globally, the supply of natural rubber is gradually entering the high - yield period, and rainfall in most Southeast Asian producing areas is still high. Last week, the operating rate of domestic butadiene rubber plants continued to decline, while the operating rate of upstream butadiene plants continued to rise significantly [6] - Last week, the operating rate of domestic all - steel tires rebounded, while the operating rate of semi - steel tires continued to decline, and the finished product inventory of tire enterprises increased [6] - This week, the total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao decreased to 617,000 tons, with an increase in bonded area inventory and a decrease in general trade inventory. Last week, the social inventory of Chinese butadiene rubber continued to decline to 11,500 tons, and the port inventory of Chinese butadiene continued to rise significantly to 204,000 tons [6] - Overall, demand is average, rubber supply is increasing, rubber inventory is decreasing, and market sentiment is cautious. It is recommended to wait and see [6] Pulp - Today, pulp futures declined significantly. The spot price of Shandong Moon was stable at 5,500 yuan/ton, the price of Russian needles in the Yangtze River Delta was 5,300 yuan/ton, and the price of broad - leaf pulp Jinyu was stable at 4,200 yuan/ton [7] - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of mainstream pulp ports in China was 2.099 million tons, a decrease of 51,000 tons from the previous period and a month - on - month increase of 2.5% [7] - In July, domestic social retail data weakened month - on - month, and the driving effect of trade - in programs weakened, indicating a continued decline in domestic demand [7] - Currently, domestic port inventory is high year - on - year, pulp supply is relatively loose, and pulp demand is still weak. After entering August, downstream demand may gradually pick up as it approaches the peak season. It is recommended to wait and see [7] Logs - The futures price fluctuated. The mainstream spot price remained stable [8] - Last week, the arrival volume decreased significantly. The overseas quotation has risen for two consecutive months, while the increase in domestic spot prices is small, increasing the pressure on traders. It is expected that imports will not increase significantly in the short term, and domestic supply may remain at a low level [8] - After entering the off - season, the average daily outbound volume at ports fluctuates around 60,000 cubic meters, and the overall outbound situation is good [8] - As of August 15, the total log inventory at national ports was 3.06 million cubic meters, a month - on - month decrease of 0.65%. The total log inventory is low, and inventory pressure is relatively small [8] - Overall, the supply - demand situation has improved, but peak - season demand has not yet started. It is recommended to wait and see [8]