矿端扰动带动供应收缩预期，铜延续高位区间波动

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The copper market may continue to oscillate at a high level in the short term. The core drivers are the continuous fermentation of supply - side disturbances and the support from the home appliance sector in the demand side. However, the macro - sentiment is cautious, and the risk of fluctuations caused by unexpected events should be vigilant [6]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Futures Market Data Change Analysis 3.1.1 Main Contracts and Basis - On August 15, the SHFE copper futures main contract closed at 79,080 yuan/ton, slightly down from August 12. The LME copper price also slightly declined to $9,760/ton during the same period. The domestic spot premium - discount structure was differentiated. The premium of premium copper dropped from 260 yuan/ton on August 12 to 210 yuan/ton on August 15, and the premium of flat - water copper shrank synchronously. But in North China, the spot premium - discount of electrolytic copper was boosted due to logistics restrictions near the Tianjin SCO Summit. The LME (0 - 3) discount widened to -$93.75/ton, indicating short - term supply pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Position and Trading Volume - The LME copper position increased to 271,444 lots on August 15, an increase of 2,867 lots compared to August 12. The domestic spot trading sentiment was relatively stable, and the procurement and sales sentiment indices in Shanghai were both around 3.1, with strong wait - and - see sentiment from both supply and demand sides [2]. 3.2 Analysis of Industrial Chain Supply - Demand and Inventory Changes 3.2.1 Supply Side - Overseas copper mine disturbances intensified. The Las Bambas copper mine in Peru may face operational interruptions due to the presidential election. Although MMG maintained its annual production forecast of 360,000 - 400,000 tons, transportation disruptions and inventory clearance indicated short - term supply constraints. Zambia's Q2 copper production decreased by about 4% quarter - on - quarter, mainly due to production problems of four enterprises. The annual production target of 1 million tons was under pressure. In China, policy adjustments in the recycled copper industry affected the raw material procurement of bronze strip enterprises, potentially suppressing recycled copper supply. However, Minmetals Resources' copper sales in the first half of the year increased by 51% year - on - year, partially offsetting supply - side disturbances [3]. 3.2.2 Demand Side - Downstream demand showed differentiation. The market quotation of brass rods remained flat. The production of recycled copper rod factories was suppressed by raw material shortages and policy uncertainties, and the overall production enthusiasm was average. However, the refrigeration and air - conditioning valve market continued to grow, with sales increasing by 5.7% year - on - year in the first half of the year. Policy stimulus for home appliances in the second half of the year may further boost copper consumption. Overall, the demand in the power and home appliance sectors remained stable, but the demand in the construction and industrial sectors was still weak [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory Side - On August 15, the LME inventory slightly increased to 24,560 tons, the SHFE inventory slightly decreased to 155,800 tons, and the COMEX inventory rose to 267,195 short tons. The global visible inventory generally fluctuated at a low level. The concentrated arrival of imported sources in Shanghai increased the inventory, but with the active shipment of holders, the spot premium remained firm, and inventory accumulation did not form obvious pressure [5]. 3.3 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - From August 12 to August 18, the prices of SMM:1 copper, SHFE, and LME showed slight fluctuations. The premiums of premium copper, flat - water copper, and wet - process copper changed, with the wet - process copper having a large change rate of 566.67%. The LME (0 - 3) discount increased by - 3.20%. In terms of inventory, the LME inventory increased by 3.82%, the SHFE inventory decreased by - 0.13%, and the COMEX inventory increased by 0.00% [8]. 3.4 Industry Dynamics and Interpretations - MMG's Production: MMG's annual production forecast for the Las Bambas copper mine in Peru remains unchanged at 360,000 - 400,000 tons, but the presidential election may cause operational interruptions [9]. - Qingyuan Jiangtong's PV Project: On August 15, Jiangxi Copper (Qingyuan) Co., Ltd.'s 2540.65 - kilowatt distributed photovoltaic power generation project was officially connected to the grid, with an annual power generation of 2.5 million kilowatt - hours, saving 1,000 tons of standard coal and reducing 2,492 tons of carbon dioxide emissions annually [10]. - SMM Copper News: Due to the approaching Tianjin SCO Summit, logistics restrictions in North China boosted the spot premium - discount of electrolytic copper [10]. - Zambia's Copper Production: Zambia's Q2 copper production decreased by about 4% quarter - on - quarter, and the annual production target of 1 million tons is at risk [11]. - Recycled Copper Policy: Policy adjustments in the recycled copper industry may affect the raw material procurement of bronze strip enterprises [12].