螺纹热卷日报-20250819

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: Black Metal R & D Report [1][5][10][12][22][31][38][50][60] - Report date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Qi Chunyi [4] Group 2: Market Information Thread Steel - Futures prices: RB05 at 3259 yuan/ton (-21), RB10 at 3126 yuan/ton (-29), RB01 at 3208 yuan/ton (-29) [3] - Spot prices: Shanghai Zhongtian at 3260 yuan/ton (-20), Nanjing Xicheng at 3380 yuan/ton (-20), Shandong Shiheng at 3320 yuan/ton (0), Tangshan Tanggang at 3210 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract thread steel disk profit at 18 yuan/ton (-23), 10 - contract at - 104 yuan/ton (-28), 01 - contract at - 25 yuan/ton (-30) [3] Hot - Rolled Coil - Futures prices: HC05 at 3403 yuan/ton (-17), HC10 at 3416 yuan/ton (-3), HC01 at 3403 yuan/ton (-10) [3] - Spot prices: Tianjin Hegang at 3400 yuan/ton (-10), Lecong Rigang at 3450 yuan/ton (10), Shanghai Angang at 3450 yuan/ton (0) [3] - Profits: 05 - contract hot - rolled coil disk profit at 163 yuan/ton (-19), 10 - contract at 186 yuan/ton (-2), 01 - contract at 170 yuan/ton (-11) [3] Group 3: Market Judgment - Related prices: Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel at 3260 yuan (-20), Beijing Jingye at 3260 yuan (-10), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil at 3450 yuan (-), Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil at 3400 yuan (-10) [7] - Trading strategy: The black sector declined overall in the afternoon. Ferroalloys led the decline. Spot trading was generally weak, and speculative demand was weak. Steel production is resuming, with thread steel slightly reducing production and hot - rolled coil increasing. Five major steel products are accumulating inventory, and the inventory accumulation speed of thread steel is accelerating. Steel exports remain resilient, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils is still strong. Affected by high temperatures and typhoons, the demand for construction steel is declining rapidly. The fundamentals of steel are peaking, and demand is seasonally declining. The focus of influencing prices will shift from policy to fundamentals. Steel prices are expected to be volatile and weak in the short term, and there is still pressure before the military parade [8] - Specific trading strategies: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile and weak; it is recommended to continue holding thread steel positive spreads; it is recommended to wait and see for options [9] - Important information: In July 2025, China's rebar production was 15.182 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%; the cumulative production from January to July was 113.387 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. In July, the production of medium - thick wide steel strips was 18.414 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.2%; the cumulative production from January to July was 132.435 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.4%. In July, the production of wire rods (coils) was 11.375 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.9%; the cumulative production from January to July was 78.959 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.1%. The production schedule data for September shows that the domestic sales schedule for air conditioners is 5.082 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.1%, and the export schedule is 4.785 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 14.6% [9][11] Group 4: Related Attachments - Figures include thread steel and hot - rolled coil price trends, basis, spreads, disk profits, cash profits, cost differences, etc., with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15][19][25][27][29][34][36][41][45][53][57][59][62]