能源日报-20250819

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer bearish trend and a suitable investment opportunity [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆, meaning a bearish stance with a clearer downward trend and the market situation is developing [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, showing a clearer bearish trend and an appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas (LPG): ☆☆☆, representing a clearer bearish trend and a proper investment chance [1] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market faces accelerated inventory accumulation pressure, with the price center likely to decline in the medium - term, but short - term uncertainties remain, and a strategy of holding out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging is recommended [2] - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak in the oil product futures, while low - sulfur fuel oil is strong. The increase in high - sulfur fuel oil supply from the Middle East to Asia suppresses the market [3] - For asphalt, although production is declining, demand is expected to pick up during the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season. The price will fluctuate weakly, with the 10 - contract expected to trade in a narrow range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] - The overseas LPG market is stabilizing, but the domestic market is under pressure. The cost advantage of propane is weakening, and the market will mainly oscillate at a low level [5] Summary by Directory Crude Oil - Since the second half of the year, global oil inventories have increased by 0.5%, with crude oil inventories decreasing by 0.7% and refined oil inventories increasing by 2.6%. In the fourth quarter, supply - demand surplus will expand, and there will be an annual surplus of 2.52 million barrels per day in 2026 [2] - Short - term overseas crude oil futures and options net long positions are at a low level, and uncertainties in the US - Russia - Ukraine negotiations remain. Hold out - of - the - money option straddles for hedging and wait for volatility to increase before taking mid - term short positions [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak, and low - sulfur fuel oil is strong, especially in the past two trading days, LU has risen against SC [3] - High - sulfur fuel oil shipments from the Middle East to Asia are increasing, and the total arrival volume in August has increased by 733,000 tons (25.1%) compared to June. The high - low differentiation of domestic FU and LU warehouse receipts has widened the high - low sulfur spread [3] Asphalt - After the US resumes importing Venezuelan oil, it is expected to divert North Asian resources. Sinopec's increase in deep - processing load has led to a year - on - year decline in asphalt cumulative production [4] - With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" construction season, road demand is expected to pick up. In August, the sample refinery shipments increased by 8% year - on - year, and leading indicators are positive [4] - The low basis in South China supports the spot price, while the high basis in Shandong has shifted the spot price center down. The BU single - side price follows SC but with a smaller amplitude, and the low inventory still supports the price, with the 10 - contract expected to trade in a narrow range of 3400 - 3500 yuan/ton [4] LPG - The overseas LPG market has stabilized recently. Although exports are increasing, the procurement demand in East Asia provides support. In the domestic market, imports and refinery outflows are rising, but domestic gas is still under pressure due to weak gas demand [5] - After the recent decline in crude oil has driven down naphtha, the cost advantage of propane has been continuously weakened. Concerns about the sustainability of the current high operating rate are raised under the expectation of falling chemical gross margins [5] - The market is waiting for the realization of bearish expectations. With high warehouse receipts, the top pressure is strong, and the high - basis pattern will continue, with the market mainly oscillating at a low level [5]