燃料油日报-20250819

Group 1: Related Data - FU main contract price on August 19, 2025, was 2686, down 27 from the previous day; LU main contract price was 3466, down 14 [3] - FU main contract positions were 95,000 lots, down 17,000 lots from the previous day; LU main contract positions were 44,000 lots, up 2,000 lots [3] - FU warehouse receipts were 80,710 tons, unchanged from the previous day; LU warehouse receipts were 11,110 tons, unchanged [3] - FU9 - 1 spread was -27, down 1; LU10 - 11 spread was 7, down 8; LU - FU main contract spread was 780, up 13 [3] - FU09 - foreign market 08 spread was -17.9, down 1.1; LU10 - foreign market 09 spread was 7.6, up 0.7 [3] - In the Singapore paper market, the high - sulfur Sep/Oct month - spread decreased from 3.3 to 1.5 USD/ton, and the low - sulfur Sep/Oct month - spread decreased from 2.0 to 1.0 USD/ton [8] Group 2: Market Analysis Market Overview - Debris from destroyed Ukrainian drones caused fires at an oil refinery and a hospital roof in the Volgograd region of Russia [6] Market Judgment - High - sulfur supply and inventory in Asia remain at a high level in the near term. Ukrainian bombings of Russian refineries continue, affecting some refinery capacities. Mexican high - sulfur exports are declining, and Middle - East high - sulfur exports are stable at a low level. High - sulfur supply pressure in the third quarter is slightly lower than expected. High - sulfur seasonal power - generation demand is gradually decreasing, and the support from feedstock demand in China after the increase in the consumption - tax deduction ratio is not obvious. Singapore's high - sulfur bunker fuel bunkering volume in July reached the highest level since IMO2020 [7] - Low - sulfur fuel oil spot premiums are continuously declining. The increase in spot - window sellers and near - term supply growth are hitting low - sulfur spot prices. Low - sulfur supply is continuously increasing, and there is no specific driver for downstream demand. Nigerian RFCC units have intermittent maintenance, and South - Sudan's low - sulfur raw - material supply is gradually returning to the early 2024 level. Al - Zour's low - sulfur exports have rebounded to the high level of normal refinery operation, with a significant increase in exports to Singapore. The low - sulfur market in China has sufficient supply and stable demand [7]