Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai copper, the market is speculating on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The fundamental situation has no significant change. The market is waiting for new drivers, with support at 78,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting on Thursday [10]. - For lithium carbonate, in the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to frequent disturbances at the mine end and the approaching peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" [11]. - For crude oil, the supply - demand situation is weakening, and the price is expected to decline under pressure. It is recommended to short on rallies [14]. - For asphalt, it is recommended to view it as a weak and volatile market due to the weakening cost side [15]. - For PP, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [17]. - For plastic, it is expected to fluctuate in the near term. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [18]. - For PVC, it is expected to fluctuate downward. It is recommended to take profit and exit the 09 - 01 reverse spread [20]. - For coking coal, the market sentiment is cooling, and the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a high level [21]. - For urea, in the short term, it will mainly show a strong and volatile trend, and attention should be paid to the Indian tender in September [23]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market Overview - As of the close on August 19, domestic futures main contracts showed mixed trends. Urea rose more than 3%, PX and rapeseed meal rose more than 1%. Silicon iron fell more than 3%, and manganese silicon, alumina, soda ash, and eggs fell more than 2%. Stock index futures of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 all declined, while treasury bond futures of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year all rose [6]. - As of 15:21 on August 19, in terms of capital flow, palm oil 2601, glass 2601, and soybean meal 2601 had capital inflows, while CSI 300 2509, CSI 1000 2509, and CSI 500 2509 had capital outflows [8]. Shanghai Copper - Supply: In May, refined copper production increased by 14.0% year - on - year. The port inventory of concentrate copper ore has decreased to a five - year low. The collapse of the El Teniente mine has led to a short - term reduction in global supply. The TC/RC fees continue to rise steadily. There is only one smelter with a maintenance plan in August, and a new smelter in East China has started production. Production may decline in the later third quarter [10]. - Demand: Downstream demand is lukewarm. New orders have increased, but the market trading volume has decreased month - on - month. Real estate still drags down demand, but the power grid and new energy bring demand resilience. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased this week, indicating a weak demand and a loose supply - demand pattern [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Supply: As of the week of August 14, the weekly output of lithium carbonate increased by 424 tons compared with the previous week. The spot price of spodumene has been rising, supporting the price of lithium carbonate [11]. - Demand: The market's purchasing sentiment has increased, and there is a sentiment of holding back sales at high prices. In the short term, the price will fluctuate at a high level due to the approaching peak season and supply - side disturbances [11]. Crude Oil - Supply: OPEC + plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September. EIA and IEA have raised the forecast of global oil surplus [12]. - Demand: It is in the late stage of the seasonal travel peak. The inventory of crude oil and diesel has increased, and the overall oil product inventory continues to rise. The economic situation in the United States has raised concerns, which will increase the pressure on crude oil prices in the fourth quarter [12]. Asphalt - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate rebounded by 1.2 percentage points to 32.9%. The estimated production in August decreased by 5.1% month - on - month but increased by 17.1% year - on - year [15]. - Demand: The operating rates of downstream industries mostly increased last week, but the national shipment volume decreased by 11.34% month - on - month. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries has increased, and the demand is affected by factors such as funds and rainfall [15]. PP - Supply: The operating rate of PP enterprises is around 84%. The production ratio of standard - grade drawstring has decreased to about 25%. A new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the number of maintenance devices has slightly decreased [16]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has rebounded to 49.35%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory pressure is still high. It is expected to enter the peak season soon, and the operating rate of plastic weaving has slightly increased [16]. Plastic - Supply: The plastic operating rate has dropped to about 82.5%. A new production capacity of 400,000 tons/year has been put into operation recently, and the operating rate has slightly decreased [18]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has increased to 39.47%, but it is still at a low level in the same period of previous years. The orders of agricultural films and packaging films have decreased. The consumption off - season has not ended, and the inventory pressure is still high [18]. PVC - Supply: The PVC operating rate has increased to 80.33%. New production capacities will be put into production in August, September. The export expectation in the second half of the year has weakened [19][20]. - Demand: The downstream operating rate has slightly decreased. The real estate market is still in the adjustment stage, and demand has not improved substantially. The inventory pressure is large [19][20]. Coking Coal - Supply: The supply data has increased this period, the production of clean coal and raw coal has increased, and the inventory of mine clean coal has decreased [21]. - Demand: The profit of independent coking enterprises has turned positive, and the production of downstream coke has increased while the inventory has decreased. However, the iron - water production has decreased this period, and the profitability of steel mills has weakened. The seventh round of coke price increase has started, but there is resistance from downstream customers [21]. Urea - Supply: The production of urea plants increased last week, and there were both shutdowns and restarts this period, with overall narrow fluctuations [22]. - Demand: Domestic demand is insufficient. The compound fertilizer factories are in the early stage of autumn fertilizer production, and the operating rate has reached a historical high. The melamine operating rate has decreased, and the terminal furniture market is cold. The inventory of urea plants has increased and is at a five - year high [22][23].
冠通每日交易策略-20250819
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-08-19 11:37