玻璃纯碱数据日报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 18, the prices of glass and soda ash declined [2] - Recently, market sentiment has been volatile. Macro - policies are mostly positive, and the anti - involution logic is long - term, with strong expectations. However, the short - term fundamentals are weak, and the industry is still facing oversupply. So, the upward price space is limited. Especially with the approaching delivery of the 09 contract and the shift of the main contract, prices are weaker in the near term and stronger in the long term [2] - Glass supply is stable, but demand is weak. After the price decline, speculative demand disappeared, and inventory accumulated. Recently, there are strong expectations of supply disturbances for soda ash, but fundamentally, soda ash supply has returned to a high level. Due to the production cut of photovoltaic glass, direct demand has weakened, and the overall oversupply pressure is prominent, so prices are also difficult to rise. Industrial customers can focus on cash - and - carry arbitrage [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Glass and Soda Ash Futures Data (August 19, 2025) - Soda Ash Futures Contracts - Closing prices for January, May, and September contracts are 1212, 1308, and 1030 respectively; for fine soda ash, they are 1386, 1442, and 1272. The price changes are 1, - 1, - 16 for soda ash and - 9, - 8, - 21 for fine soda ash. The change rates are 0.08%, - 0.08%, - 1.53% for soda ash and - 0.65%, - 0.55%, - 1.62% for fine soda ash [1] - For spreads, the closing spreads of 5 - 9, 1 - 5, 9 - 1 for soda ash are - 96, 278, - 182; for fine soda ash, they are - 56, 170, - 114. The spread changes are 15, - 17, - 1 for soda ash and 13, - 12 for fine soda ash [1] - Spot Prices - Spot prices for soda ash in different regions are 1190, 1150, 1230, 1050; for fine soda ash in different regions are 1350, 1250. The basis for the main contracts are - 62, - 22, 18, - 336, - 36, - 136 [1]