市场风险情绪与降息预期波动，上周金价震荡回调

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Market risk sentiment and expectations of interest rate cuts fluctuated last week, causing the gold price to oscillate and decline. The prices of Shanghai gold futures, COMEX gold futures, Shanghai gold T+D, and London gold all decreased compared to the previous week. The unexpected rise in the US July PPI data and the significant rebound in retail sales data dampened expectations of interest rate cuts, while the meeting between Trump and Putin increased the expectation of a缓和 in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, jointly suppressing the gold price. This week, the gold price is expected to decline slightly, but in the long term, the overall upward trend of the gold price will not reverse without clear driving factors [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Last Week's Market Review 3.1.1 Gold Spot and Futures Price Trends - On August 15, the closing price of Shanghai gold futures was 775.80 yuan/gram, a decrease of 12.00 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of COMEX gold futures was 3381.70 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 76.50 US dollars/ounce from the previous week. The closing price of Shanghai gold T+D was 773.09 yuan/gram, a decrease of 10.18 yuan/gram from the previous week; the closing price of London gold was 3335.28 US dollars/ounce, a decrease of 63.30 US dollars/ounce from the previous week [4]. 3.1.2 Gold Basis - On August 15, the international gold basis (spot - futures) was -0.70 US dollars/ounce, an increase of 8.65 US dollars/ounce from the previous week; the Shanghai gold basis was -3.37 yuan/gram, a decrease of 1.80 yuan/gram from the previous week [8]. 3.1.3 Gold Price Spread between Domestic and Foreign Markets - Last week, the decline of the foreign gold price was greater than that of the domestic market. On Friday, the gold price spread between domestic and foreign markets was -8.91 yuan/gram, an increase from -12.48 yuan/gram the previous week. The decline of the crude oil price was slightly greater than that of the gold price, causing the gold - oil ratio to decline slightly; the decline of the silver price was less than that of the gold price, causing the gold - silver ratio to continue to decline; the gold - copper ratio decreased significantly [10]. 3.1.4 Position Analysis - In terms of spot positions, the position of gold ETFs continued to increase slightly last week. As of August 15, the position of the world's largest SPDR gold ETF was 965.37 tons, an increase of 5.73 tons from the previous week. The cumulative trading volume of domestic gold T+D decreased slightly. In terms of futures positions, as of August 12, the long positions of gold CFTC asset management institutions decreased slightly, while the short positions increased significantly, resulting in a slight decline in the net long positions. In terms of inventory, the inventory of COMEX gold futures increased slightly last week, and the inventory of Shanghai Futures Exchange gold increased by 300 kilograms to 36,345 kilograms [13]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Fundamentals 3.2.1 Important Economic Data - US Treasury Secretary Besent said that most US trade negotiations will be completed by October. The US July CPI was lower than expected, but the core CPI growth rate reached the highest level since February. The US July PPI increased significantly, reaching a three - year high. The US July retail sales increased by 0.5% month - on - month, and the real retail sales increased for the tenth consecutive month [17][19][20][21]. 3.2.2 Federal Reserve Policy Tracking - Last week, Fed officials spoke intensively, and most of them were cautious about the path of interest rate cuts. Some officials supported maintaining the current interest rate level, while others believed that it was necessary to see more data before making a decision. Only a few officials supported starting to ease monetary policy next month [28][29][30]. 3.2.3 US Dollar Index Trend - Driven by the soaring service cost, the unexpected significant increase in the US July PPI data cooled the market's expectation of interest rate cuts, causing the US dollar index to fluctuate and decline. As of last Friday, the US dollar index decreased by 0.43% to 97.85 compared to the previous week [31]. 3.2.4 US 10 - Year TIPS Yield Trend - The US 10 - year TIPS yield fluctuated and increased last week. The mild US July CPI data at the beginning of the week increased the market's expectation of a September interest rate cut, causing the US 10 - year TIPS yield to continue to decline. However, the significant increase in the PPI data and the rebound in retail sales data in the second half of the week pushed the US 10 - year TIPS yield up. As of last Friday, the US 10 - year TIPS yield increased by 7bp to 1.95% compared to the previous week [33]. 3.2.5 International Important Event Tracking - Trump and Putin held talks, and there may be room for negotiation between Russia and Ukraine. European leaders will accompany Ukrainian President Zelensky to meet with Trump in Washington this week to seek security guarantees for Kiev. In the Middle East, Israel continues to attack Gaza [36].