银河期货鸡蛋日报-20250819

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Agricultural Products Daily Report - Egg Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Data Futures Market - JD01 closed at 3468, down 24 from the previous day; JD05 closed at 3450, down 18; JD09 closed at 2983, down 115 [3] - 01 - 05 spread closed at 18, down 6; 05 - 09 spread closed at 467, up 97; 09 - 01 spread closed at -485, down 91 [3] - 01 egg/corn ratio was 1.60, unchanged; 01 egg/bean meal ratio was 1.10, down 0.01 [3] Spot Market - The average price in the main production areas was 3.11 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - The average price of eliminated chickens was 5.15 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] Profit Calculation - The profit per chicken was 8.54 yuan, up 0.45 yuan from the previous day [3] - The average price of corn was 2391 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the average price of bean meal was 3114 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Group 3: Fundamental Information - The average price in the main production areas was 3.1 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.43 yuan/jin, unchanged. The national mainstream price remained stable [6] - In July, the national laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, an increase of 0.016 billion from the previous month and a 6.1% year - on - year increase. The monthly output of chicken seedlings in July was 39.98 million, a 2% month - on - month decrease and a 4% year - on - year decrease [7] - From August to November 2025, the estimated laying - hen inventory was 1.356 billion, 1.36 billion, 1.358 billion, and 1.351 billion respectively [7] - From August 8 to 14, the national main production area's egg - laying hen elimination volume was 14.42 million, a 5% increase from the previous week. The average elimination age was 506 days, unchanged [7] - As of August 14, the egg sales volume in the representative sales areas was 7605 tons, a 1% increase from the previous week [8] - As of August 7, the average inventory in the production link was 0.92 days, a decrease of 0.17 days; the average inventory in the circulation link was 1.03 days, a decrease of 0.2 days [8] - As of August 14, the average weekly profit per jin of eggs was - 0.26 yuan/jin, unchanged; on August 8, the expected profit of egg - laying hen breeding was 11.92 yuan/chicken, a decrease of 2.02 yuan/jin from the previous week [8] - The national price of eliminated chickens decreased, with the main production area's average price at 5.15 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.02 yuan/jin from the previous trading day [8] Group 4: Trading Logic - The supply pressure is obvious and the demand is average, leading to price decline. After the previous rebound of egg prices, cold - storage eggs were gradually released, impacting the price. Although the spot price has risen, it is lower than expected. Short positions should be considered for the 10 and 11 contracts [9] Group 5: Trading Strategies - Single - side: Consider short positions on rallies [10] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell out - of - the - money call options [10] Group 6: Related Charts - The report includes 15 charts, covering egg prices in main production and sales areas, chicken - seedling prices, eliminated - chicken prices, feed costs, laying - hen inventory, spreads, and breeding profits [12][16][20][22][27][29][38][40]