银河期货甲醇日报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report With increasing supply and stable downstream demand, methanol inventories at ports are accumulating rapidly. Against the backdrop of increasing supply, shorting on rallies is the main strategy for methanol trading [5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures Market: The futures market fluctuated, closing at 2391 (-9/-0.38%) [3]. - Spot Market: In production areas, prices range from 2090 to 2230 yuan/ton; in consumption areas, prices range from 2200 to 2320 yuan/ton; at ports, prices range from 2270 to 2310 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information This week (20250818 - 0819), the weekly signing volume (excluding long - term contracts) of methanol sample production enterprises in the Northwest was 28,300 tons (2.83 million tons), a decrease of 7,500 tons (0.75 million tons) from the previous statistical day, a month - on - month decrease of 20.95% [4]. Logic Analysis - Supply Side: Coal - producing areas in the Northwest have seen a significant decline in coal mine operating rates, with a rebound in raw coal prices. Methanol production profits are high and stable, and domestic supply is continuously abundant. Import supply is also increasing, with Iran's production recovering [5]. - Demand Side: Traditional downstream industries are in the off - season, with a decline in operating rates. MTO device operating rates are rising, but some devices have reduced loads or stopped production. Overall, demand is stable [5]. - Inventory: Port inventories are accumulating due to increased imports, while inland enterprise inventories are fluctuating within a narrow range [5]. Trading Strategy - Single - sided: Short on rallies, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]. - Options: Sell call options [10].