印标再次扰动，尿素止跌反弹

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week's view was that demand weakened and urea ex - factory quotes mainly declined. This week, due to the new Indian tender, urea prices stopped falling and rebounded. Some device overhauls led to the daily output dropping to around 190,000 tons, still at the highest level in the same period. The new Indian tender of 2 million tons with a September 2nd bid - closing date and an end - of - October shipping date, along with relaxed export policies, boosted the domestic market sentiment. However, overall demand was declining, with high inventories and cautious traders. In the short term, domestic demand was limited, but the Indian tender and low domestic prices were expected to support the market and lead to a short - term bottoming [4]. - Trading strategies include going long on the single - side when prices are low, observing for arbitrage, and selling put options in the over - the - counter market [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overview - Market sentiment was stable, with ex - factory quotes in some areas stabilizing or adjusting. Shandong's quotes rebounded, Henan's remained stable, and prices in the delivery area and its surrounding areas were expected to decline. The overall supply was abundant, and demand was weak, but the Indian tender had a positive impact on market sentiment [4]. 2. Core Data Changes - Supply: In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250807 - 0813), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 85.51%, up 1.85% month - on - month; that of gas - based urea was 75.77%, down 0.76% month - on - month. In Shandong, the capacity utilization rate was 78.10%, down 1.12% month - on - month [5]. - Demand: In the 33rd week of 2025 (20250808 - 0814), the average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points from the previous week. In the 32nd week of 2025 (20250801 - 0807), the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 41.5%, up 2.82 percentage points month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizer's urea demand was 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points month - on - month. As of August 13, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.29 days, down 0.24 days from the previous period [5]. - Inventory: On August 13, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 957,400 tons, an increase of 69,800 tons from the previous week. The port sample inventory was 464,000 tons, a decrease of 19,000 tons month - on - month, with a decline rate of 3.93% [5]. - Valuation: The prices of Jincheng anthracite lump coal and Yulin pulverized coal rebounded, while the urea spot price declined. The profit of fixed - bed production was 110 yuan/ton, that of coal - water slurry production was 210 yuan/ton, and that of entrained - flow bed production was 360 yuan/ton. The futures fluctuated, with a basis of - 80 yuan/ton and a 9 - 1 spread of - 17 yuan/ton [5].