银河期货每日早盘观察-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but there are still some pressure points. The domestic soybean market has a significant inventory accumulation pressure. For sugar, the international market is expected to enter a stock - building phase, and the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend. In the oil sector, palm oil may continue to increase production and inventory, while domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable. For corn, the external market shows a rebound trend. The pig price remains stable, and the peanut market is in a new - old alternation period. The egg market has supply pressure and general demand, and the apple market has low inventory and is in a off - season. The cotton market is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [4][11][19][22][30][34][43][50][57]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean/Meal - External Market: CBOT soybean index dropped 0.31% to 1053 cents/bushel, and CBOT soybean meal index rose 0.03% to 292.5 dollars/short ton [2]. - Related Information: As of August 17, the soybean good - excellent rate was 68%, unchanged from the previous week. The US soybean export inspection volume for the week ending August 14 was 473,605 tons. Oil World indicated that the US soybean production decline reduced market safety. As of August 15, the oil mill's actual soybean crushing volume was 2.339 million tons, with an operating rate of 65.75%. Soybean inventory decreased by 4.24% week - on - week, and soybean meal inventory increased by 1.12% week - on - week [2][3]. - Logic Analysis: The international soybean market's supply - demand situation has improved, but the Brazilian and Argentine soybean markets have their own characteristics. The domestic soybean market has inventory accumulation pressure [4][6]. - Strategy Suggestion: For single - side trading, a long - position thinking is recommended for soybean and rapeseed meal; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, buy call options [7]. Sugar - External Market Changes: ICE US raw sugar price dropped 1.4% to 16.24 cents/pound, and London white sugar price dropped 0.96% to 476.9 dollars/ton [8]. - Important Information: In July 2025, China imported 740,000 tons of sugar, a year - on - year increase. The US announced the sugar import tariff quota implementation rules for the 2025/26 fiscal year. Pakistan decided to import 85,000 tons of sugar [9][10]. - Logic Analysis: Internationally, Brazil is in the supply peak, and the global inventory is expected to increase. Domestically, the domestic sugar price will follow the international trend [11]. - Position Suggestion: For single - side trading, expect the Zhengzhou sugar price to be volatile in the short term, and consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [12][13][14]. Oil Sector - External Market: Not provided. - Related Information: From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased by 0.88% month - on - month. As of August 17, the US soybean good - excellent rate was 68%. Canada's rapeseed export volume increased by 864.4% in the week ending August 10. China's palm oil imports in July decreased by 46.8% year - on - year, while soybean oil imports increased by 263% year - on - year. As of August 15, palm oil and soybean oil commercial inventories increased [17][18]. - Logic Analysis: Malaysia's palm oil is in the production season, and Indonesia's price provides support. Domestic soybean imports are decreasing, and the fundamentals of rapeseed oil are relatively stable [19]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, expect a short - term correction in oil prices and consider long - positions after the correction; for arbitrage, consider a positive spread for P1 - 5 after the correction; for options, consider selling put options or buying call options after the correction [19][21]. Corn/Corn Starch - External Market Changes: CBOT corn futures rebounded, with the December contract rising 0.6% to 406.5 cents/bushel [22]. - Important Information: The US corn main - producing areas are expected to have lower - than - normal temperatures. The US corn good - excellent rate is 71%. Brazil's corn shipment volume in August 2025 was lower than last year. The North Port's corn purchase price was stable, and the North China corn market was strong [23][24]. - Logic Analysis: Not provided. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider a long - position for the external December corn contract and short - selling at high prices for the January contract; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [26][27][28]. Pig - Related Information: Pig prices remained stable across regions. Piglet and sow prices changed slightly. The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased, and the average pork price in the national agricultural product wholesale market increased by 0.7% [30]. - Logic Analysis: Not provided. - Strategy Suggestion: For single - side trading, consider long - positions for far - month contracts at low prices; for arbitrage, conduct an LH91 reverse spread; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [31]. Peanut - Important Information: During the new - old peanut alternation period, the price of old peanuts decreased, and the price of new peanuts increased. Peanut oil prices were strong, and peanut meal sales were weak. As of August 14, peanut and peanut oil inventories decreased [32][33]. - Logic Analysis: The peanut market is in a new - old alternation period, the import volume has decreased, and the downstream consumption is weak. The 10 - month peanut is expected to be strong in the short term but may face supply pressure due to the expected increase in planting area [34]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider short - selling the 10 - month peanut at high prices and currently take a wait - and - see approach; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, sell the pk510 - C - 8600 option [35][36][37]. Egg - Important Information: Egg prices in the main production and sales areas increased slightly, and then remained stable. In July, the national laying - hen inventory increased year - on - year. The egg sales volume in the representative sales areas increased by 1% in the week ending August 14. The production and circulation inventories decreased. The egg - farming profit was - 0.26 yuan/jin, and the egg - hen farming expected profit decreased [39][41][42]. - Trading Logic: The supply pressure is obvious, the demand is general, and the cold - storage eggs' release impacts the price. For the September contract, although it is a peak - season contract, the spot price increase is less than expected [43]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, consider short - selling at high prices; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [43][45]. Apple - Important Information: As of August 13, the national apple cold - storage inventory was 460,100 tons, a week - on - week decrease. In June 2025, the fresh apple import volume increased year - on - year, and the export volume decreased year - on - year. The apple price was stable, and the early - maturing apple price was high [47]. - Trading Logic: The current inventory is low, the market is in an off - season, the new - season apple production is expected to be similar to this season, and the early - maturing apple price decline impacts the market [50]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, expect the new - season apple price to be widely volatile; for arbitrage, take a wait - and - see approach; for options, take a wait - and - see approach [51][52]. Cotton - Cotton Yarn - External Market Impact: ICE US cotton price rose 0.53% to 67.84 cents/pound [53]. - Important Information: As of August 16, 2025, the Indian cotton planting area decreased by 3.7% year - on - year. As of August 8, the ICE cotton futures' ON - CALL data showed a decrease in the number of un - priced contracts. Brazil's 2024/25 cotton production was expected to be 3.935 million tons, a slight decrease [54][56]. - Trading Logic: The short - term tariff impact may weaken, and the supply is relatively tight. The demand is expected to improve in August. The short - term market has more positive factors [57]. - Trading Strategy: For single - side trading, expect the US cotton price to be slightly stronger and the Zhengzhou cotton price to be slightly stronger in the short term with limited upward space; for arbitrage and options, take a wait - and - see approach [58][60].