原油、燃料油日报：美俄会谈后制裁预期松动，潜在供应压力增大-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report In the short term, crude oil is likely to continue its weak and volatile pattern. Supply-side negative factors dominate, with stable Russian oil exports and the expectation of sanctions loosening alleviating the risk of supply disruptions, and limited growth in US shale oil failing to reverse the oversupply expectation. Although there is seasonal support on the demand side, the downward pressure on the global economy restricts the upside space. Overall, oil prices may fluctuate at low levels in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary - Crude Oil Futures Market Data Changes: On August 18, the SC crude oil main contract slightly declined to 486.5 yuan/barrel (down 0.33% from the 15th), while WTI and Brent prices remained flat at 62.29 and 66.13 US dollars/barrel respectively. The SC-Brent spread narrowed by 0.19 US dollars to 1.64 US dollars/barrel (a decline of 10.38%), and the SC-WTI spread also narrowed by 0.19 US dollars to 5.48 US dollars/barrel (a decline of 3.35%), indicating increased discount pressure of domestic SC prices relative to the external market. The SC inter - term spread (continuous - consecutive 3) dropped to 2.2 yuan/barrel (a decline of 18.52%), showing liquidity pressure on near - month contracts [2]. - Supply - side: The Indian Oil Corporation continued to purchase Russian crude oil (the proportion rose to 24%), and the discount on Russian oil narrowed to 1.5 US dollars/barrel, indicating the resilience of Russian oil exports. After the US - Russia meeting, the expectation of further sanctions on Russia decreased, and the channel for Russian oil to flow into Asia may become more stable [3]. - Demand - side: The US summer travel season supported gasoline demand, but the prospect of an oil market surplus suppressed market sentiment. Indian refineries maintained a high processing rate of Russian oil, indicating stable local demand, but weak global manufacturing and slow economic growth may limit the growth elasticity of demand [4]. - Inventory - side: The domestic medium - sulfur crude oil warehouse receipts remained at 4.767 million barrels, and the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,970 tons to 11,110 tons, indicating accelerated destocking of refined oil products, possibly driven by refinery restocking or exports [5]. 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - Crude Oil: Futures prices of SC decreased by 0.33%, WTI increased by 0.47%, and Brent increased by 0.50%. Among spot prices, most showed a downward trend. Spreads such as SC - Brent, SC - WTI, and SC continuous - consecutive 3 all narrowed. Other assets like the US dollar index increased by 0.30%, while the S&P 500 and DAX index decreased slightly. US commercial crude oil inventory, Cushing inventory, US strategic reserve inventory, and API inventory all increased. The US refinery weekly operating rate decreased by 0.52%, while the US refinery crude oil processing volume increased by 0.33% [8]. - Fuel Oil: Futures prices of FU, LU, and NYMEX fuel oil all increased, while most spot prices showed a downward trend. Paper - cargo prices of high - sulfur 180 and high - sulfur 380 in Singapore decreased slightly. Some spreads such as the China high - low sulfur spread and LU - Singapore FOB (0.5%S) increased. Platts prices of 380CST and 180CST decreased [9]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - Supply: On August 18, the Ukrainian armed forces attacked the Nikolskoye oil pumping station in Russia, causing it to stop pumping oil to the "Friendship" oil pipeline. The Hungarian Oil Company MOL stated that technical restoration work was in progress, and crude oil supply would resume later [10][12]. - Demand: On August 18, an executive of the Indian Oil Corporation said that they would continue to purchase Russian oil based on economic conditions and processed 24% of Russian crude oil in the June quarter [13]. - Inventory: The medium - sulfur crude oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 4,767,000 barrels, the low - sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts decreased by 4,970 tons to 11,110 tons, and the fuel oil futures warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 80,710 tons [14]. - Market Information: On August 18, Yitai B - shares clarified that there were no plans for oil import and export as mentioned in some false information. An executive of the Indian Oil Corporation said that the discount on Russian oil was about 1.5 US dollars per barrel. After the US - Russia meeting, the expectation of strengthened sanctions on Russia was temporarily put on hold, and the oil market was expected to continue to fluctuate [14]. 3.4 Industry Chain Data Charts The report provides various data charts related to the oil industry, including WTI, Brent prices and spreads, US crude oil production, OPEC crude oil production, oil rig numbers, refinery operating rates, crude oil processing volumes, inventories, and fuel oil prices and spreads [15][17][19]