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兴业期货日度策略-20250819
Xing Ye Qi Huo·2025-08-19 12:52

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall market sentiment is positive, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a ten - year high. The upward trend of stock indices is clear in the medium and long term, while the bond market is under adjustment pressure. In the commodity market, different varieties show different trends, with some being bullish, some bearish, and some in a volatile pattern [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Financial Futures - Stock Indices: The trading - type funds are active, and the abundant liquidity drives the stock indices to strengthen. With the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high, the market sentiment is high. In the medium and long term, factors such as the transfer of household deposits, the bottom - up recovery of corporate profits, and continuous policy support will continue, so the long - term holding of stock index futures is recommended [1]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market is in a weak state. The market's risk preference is optimistic, and the bond market sentiment is fragile. The risk of bond market adjustment may not be completely eliminated, especially for long - term bonds [1]. Commodity Futures Metals - Gold: The price is in a high - level volatile range. The market's prediction of the probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has decreased. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting and the marginal changes in the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut [4]. - Silver: It maintains a bullish pattern. Although the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in September has cooled marginally, it is still a high - probability event. The macro - environment is generally favorable for the upward movement of the silver price [4]. - Copper: The price is in a volatile pattern. The medium - term upward driving force remains, but there are many short - term disturbances on the demand side, and the valuation is relatively high, so the upward momentum needs new drivers [4]. - Aluminum and Alumina: Alumina is under pressure due to over - capacity, and the market's bullish sentiment has weakened. The support for Shanghai Aluminum is clear, and attention should be paid to changes in the demand side [4]. - Nickel: The price is in a narrow - range volatile pattern. The supply is not tightened, the demand elasticity is limited, and the high inventory suppresses the upward space. It is recommended to hold the short - call option [6]. - Lithium Carbonate: The resource end may still be disturbed. Although the current fundamentals are loose, there is still an expectation of resource tightening in the market, and the lithium price may fluctuate widely at a high level [6]. Energy and Chemicals - PVC: Due to serious oversupply, new short positions are recommended [2]. - Silicon Energy: The price of polysilicon has strong support. The price increase of each link in the photovoltaic industry chain supports the profit of upstream raw materials. Policy - favorable sentiment has fermented again [6]. - Steel and Minerals - Rebar: The fundamentals are weakening. The probability of the price oscillating downward has increased. It is recommended to adjust the short - put option position to the short - call option position [6]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: The short - term price is likely to be weak. It is recommended to wait for the further accumulation of fundamental contradictions or the clarification of policy [6]. - Iron Ore: The price is expected to move within a range. It is recommended to try short positions at high prices [8]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The price of coking coal is under pressure to fall, and the price of coke is likely to follow the coking coal price. [ - Glass and Soda Ash: Both are in a state of strong expectation and weak reality, showing a volatile pattern. It is recommended to wait and see for soda ash and maintain an optimistic view on the 01 contract of glass. - Crude Oil: The market is in a bearish pattern. The consumption peak season is ending, and the supply surplus expectation is strengthening. - Methanol: The coastal supply is in surplus, and the price is in a bearish pattern. - Polyolefins: The fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the price is expected to fluctuate narrowly. Agricultural Products - Cotton: The supply and demand have been adjusted, and the inventory is decreasing. The market is concerned about the marginal improvement of downstream demand in the peak season. - Rubber: The supply - demand structure is improving, and the port inventory is decreasing, providing support for the price.