玉米系数据日报-20250819

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The old - crop corn supply - demand is tightening, but there is significant warehouse receipt pressure, causing the futures market to struggle to rebound. With the expected selling pressure during the new - season corn harvest and the reduction in planting costs, a bearish view is maintained on the C11 and C01 contracts [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Price Data - Corn Spot Prices: The prices of corn at various ports and regions have different levels of change. For example, the Jinzhou Port FOB price is 2310 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the Jilin Province corn starch spot price is 2730 yuan/ton, unchanged; the Anhui Province wheat spot price is 2433 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [5]. - Futures Prices: The corn主力 contract closing price is 2263 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan; the corn starch主力 contract closing price is 2614 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [5]. - International Data: The US corn closing price is 405.75 cents per bushel, the imported US corn duty - paid price is 2098.54 yuan/ton, and the estimated profit from importing US corn is 331.46 yuan/ton [5]. Supply Situation - The remaining old - crop grain is in short supply. The volume of grain arriving at the northern ports and the number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants in the morning are at low levels. The planting cost for the 25/26 season continues to decline, and the estimated port - collection price is about 2000 - 2100 yuan/ton. The sown area shows a slight decrease, the new - season corn is growing well, and the import of grain is restricted, leading to a reduction in imported grain supply [5]. Demand Situation - In the short term, livestock and poultry are expected to maintain high inventory, supporting feed demand. However, national policies tend to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which may affect long - term supply. The price difference between wheat and corn is low, and feed mills in North China have a high proportion of wheat as a feed substitute, so they are cautious about purchasing corn. Deep - processing downstream is in a loss state, forcing the operating rate to decline to a low level, resulting in a reduction in deep - processing demand [5]. Inventory Situation - The inventories at the northern and southern ports are continuously decreasing. The number of days of corn inventory in feed enterprises and the deep - processing corn inventory are both declining [5]. Spread and Other Data - The spread between starch and corn (main continuous contract) is 351, and the spread between starch and corn (Jilin spot average price) is 490. The northern port corn inventory is 177.4 million tons, and the Guangdong port domestic - trade corn inventory is 74.8 million tons [5].