存款搬家如何演绎：基于实体部门资金运转

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the banking industry is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [3][38]. Core Insights - From January to July 2025, the total funds obtained by enterprises and residents amounted to approximately 20.05 trillion yuan, with bank loans (including write-offs and ABS) contributing about 12.93 trillion yuan, corporate bond financing at 1.42 trillion yuan, and fiscal net expenditure at 5.61 trillion yuan. The increase in deposits from residents was 9.66 trillion yuan, while non-financial corporate deposits increased by approximately 194.7 billion yuan [4][5]. - The analysis indicates that the financing demand from the real sector remains weak, and the efficiency of fund circulation between enterprises and residents is low. The government has intensified counter-cyclical adjustments [4][5]. - The trend of "deposit migration" towards wealth management products is expected to continue into the first half of 2024-2025, driven by factors such as the reduction in deposit interest rates. Since July 2025, with improved macroeconomic narratives, capital market performance has strengthened, leading to an increase in risk appetite and a shift of deposits towards equity markets [4][20]. Summary by Sections Funding Sources and Flows - In the first seven months of 2025, the total funding sources for the real sector were similar to 2023 levels but significantly higher than 2024. The loan increment for 2025 showed slight growth compared to 2024 but was notably lower than 2023. Fiscal net expenditure was significantly higher than in 2023-2024, indicating increased government intervention in response to economic recovery falling short of expectations [5][6]. - The proportion of funds flowing into resident deposits decreased from 53.9% in 2023 to 48.2% in 2025, while the flow towards financial investments increased significantly, indicating a shift in investment behavior [6][7]. Deposit Migration Analysis - The efficiency of fund circulation in the real sector has not improved, with a notable increase in "non-bank" deposits. The historical trend shows that low interest rates and capital market performance are key drivers of deposit migration [10][16]. - The migration of deposits is expected to continue, particularly towards higher-risk asset allocations rather than consumption, as consumer confidence remains subdued due to income instability and other factors [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - Given the current macroeconomic conditions and the ongoing deposit migration towards financial products, it is recommended to focus on undervalued quality cyclical stocks for excess returns in the second half of the year. Specific banks such as Ningbo Bank, Changshu Bank, and others are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [35].