2025年7月财政数据解读：广义财政收入回暖，支出增速加快上行

Group 1: Fiscal Revenue Trends - In the first seven months of 2025, the total revenue growth rate for the fiscal accounts was 0%, improving from -0.6% in the previous period[2] - The total expenditure growth rate was 9.3%, up from 8.9%, marking the highest level since September 2022[2] - Tax revenue showed a recovery with a monthly growth rate of 5%, compared to 1% in the previous month, while non-tax revenue fell to 2% from 3.7%[5] Group 2: Key Revenue Components - Stamp duty revenue increased significantly by 20.7%, with securities transaction stamp duty surging by 62.5%[15] - The number of new A-share accounts opened in July reached 1.9636 million, a 71% increase year-on-year[15] - Land transfer revenue in July was 267.9 billion yuan, down from 299 billion yuan, with a cumulative growth rate of -4.6%[18] Group 3: Expenditure Insights - The cumulative expenditure growth rate for the first seven months was 3.4%, with a monthly growth rate of 3%[21] - Special bond issuance accelerated, with a cumulative expenditure growth rate of 31.7% for the second fiscal account, reaching 42.4% in July[22] - The total issuance of special local government bonds was 2.78 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 63.1%[22] Group 4: Risks and Future Outlook - Risks include potential underperformance in domestic economic recovery, policy implementation, and a significant downturn in the real estate market[26] - The sustainability of revenue growth is uncertain, particularly if budgetary income weakens alongside declining land revenue, which may lead to increased national debt issuance in Q4 2023[1]