Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, styrene, rubber, etc. Most products are under downward pressure, and the report provides corresponding trading strategies based on fundamental and technical analyses [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: After the Trump - Russia meeting in Alaska, the geopolitical disturbance weakened, and the crude oil returned to the fundamental logic. With the approaching seasonal demand inflection point and the accelerating OPEC+ production increase, the crude oil surplus pressure will gradually materialize [2]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of crude oil is in a medium - term/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path remains unchanged. The short - term pressure above the hourly level is around 490. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [2]. 2. Styrene (EB) - Fundamental analysis: The supply side has a high weekly operating rate of 78.18%, and new production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August and September. The demand side has a stronger demand recently, but the high port inventory and new production capacity pressure still lead to a large pressure of inventory accumulation. It is still regarded as bearish [5]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of styrene is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, and the downward path continues. The short - term pressure above is around 7270. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [5]. 3. Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The raw materials in Thailand remain stable during the rainy season in Southeast Asia. The short - term downstream tire operating rate has improved, and the inventory in Qingdao has decreased recently, which provides short - term positive drivers. However, the high tire inventory still suppresses the expected increase in demand, and the medium - term fundamental driver of rubber is still downward [9]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of rubber is in a medium - term downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 15950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 15950 [9]. 4. Synthetic Rubber (BR) - Fundamental analysis: The high production and weak demand situation of synthetic rubber in the medium - term remains unchanged. The high production of butadiene rubber and the large inventory of downstream tires, especially semi - steel tires, are difficult to solve. After the new device is put into operation in the third quarter, the supply pressure of raw material butadiene also remains unchanged. Recently, the butadiene port inventory has returned to the average level in the past five years after rapid accumulation, and the short - term positive factor has disappeared. Coupled with the collapse of the upstream crude oil price, the synthetic rubber still maintains a bearish view [14]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It failed to break through the short - term pressure of 11950 after rising and falling back. The pressure level remains valid. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [14]. 5. PX - Fundamental analysis: The supply of PX has increased slightly, the PTA operation is stable, the PX fundamentals have weakened, and the inventory reduction has slowed down. However, the polyester load is expected to increase from August to September, and the fundamental contradiction is not significant. The movement of the cost - end crude oil still needs to be concerned [17]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PX is in a short - term downward structure. The intraday is volatile, but the hourly line stood above the short - term pressure of 6780 during the session, and the downward structure may be tested. The strategy is to stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle as planned [17]. 6. PTA - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operation has no significant change, but the downstream demand is expected to improve in the peak season from August to September. Coupled with the continuous low processing fee of PTA itself, the supply - demand expectation is strong, but the change of the cost - end crude oil needs to be noted [21]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PTA is in a short - term downward structure. After intraday oscillation, it failed to break through the pressure and fell back. The short - term pressure above still focuses on 4760. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [21]. 7. PP - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure increases due to the new production capacity put into operation in August. The downstream operation has improved, but the inventory in each link of the industrial chain continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are weak. The movement of crude oil also needs to be concerned [22]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of PP is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above temporarily focuses on 7050. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [22]. 8. Methanol - Fundamental analysis: After the Iranian device resumed operation, a large number of shipments arrived at the port recently, and the port inventory has increased significantly both month - on - month and year - on - year. The short - term inventory accumulation speed is fast, which exerts pressure. At the same time, the domestic production remains at a high level, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, and the downstream raw material inventory is high. The overall fundamentals are still driven bearishly [25]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of methanol is in a medium - term downward/oscillatory structure, and the short - term is in a downward structure. The intraday is volatile. Specifically, it reached a new low with increased positions at night and then rebounded and repaired during the morning session. The short - term pressure above focuses on 2425 (01 contract). The strategy is to partially stop profit for short positions in the hourly cycle and continue to hold the remaining short positions [25]. 9. PVC - Fundamental analysis: The supply - side operating rate has continued to rise to a year - on - year high of 78.8%. The demand is difficult to improve due to the downward real - estate market and the off - season, and the inventory continues to accumulate, indicating a bearish fundamental driver [29]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of PVC is in a medium - term upward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It reached a new low with increased positions today, and the short - term downward trend may accelerate. The short - term pressure above has moved down to 5060 (01 contract). The strategy is to hold short positions [29]. 10. Ethylene Glycol (EG) - Fundamental analysis: The low port inventory makes the short - term fundamentals of ethylene glycol better than other energy and chemical products, but the inventory accumulation expectation also limits the upward space. The starting time of inventory accumulation needs to be concerned [31]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of EG is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term downward structure. It is regarded as a rebound today but failed to break through the pressure, and the short - term downward structure remains valid. The short - term pressure above is 4385. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [31]. 11. Plastic - Fundamental analysis: The supply pressure is relatively large due to the increase in operation and the new production capacity put into operation. The downstream operation remains at a year - on - year low level, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation in ports and social inventories is reflected. The supply - demand driver is bearish [34]. - Technical analysis: The daily - level of plastic is in a medium - term oscillatory/downward structure, and the hourly - level is in a downward structure. The downward trend in the hourly level is confirmed after reaching a new low today. The short - term pressure above is referred to as 7345. The strategy is to hold short positions in the hourly cycle [34]. 12. Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: The supply side continues to increase, the speculative demand of glass on the demand side has weakened except for the rigid demand, the inventory pressure of soda ash plants has increased again, and the heavy - soda inventory has reached a new historical high. The supply - demand pressure of soda ash is still large, and the anti - involution has no substantial impact on the soda ash supply [39]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of soda ash is in a downward structure. After a long - negative line broke through the 15 - minute - level oscillation today, the downward trend may accelerate. The structures of the 09 and 01 contracts are still differentiated, still showing a pattern of weak 09 and strong 01. The short - term pressure level of the 09 contract is 1285. The strategy is to hold short positions in the 09 contract [39]. 13. Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The operation of alumina on the demand side remains at a high level, and the operation of viscose staple fiber in non - aluminum demand has also increased and remains at a high level. However, the supply of caustic soda itself has increased rapidly, the profit of chlor - alkali has increased, and the operation of caustic soda has further increased. With a larger supply increment, the inventory continues to accumulate, and the fundamentals are still weak [43]. - Technical analysis: The hourly - level of caustic soda is in an oscillatory structure. After a long - negative line today, the hourly - level upward trend may end. First, look for short - selling opportunities in the 15 - minute downward structure. The short - cycle pressure above the 15 - minute level focuses on 2615. The strategy is to look for short - selling opportunities when the rebound fails to break through the pressure in the 15 - minute period [43].
原油继续回落，能化延续下跌压力
Tian Fu Qi Huo·2025-08-19 14:03