中信期货晨报：国内商品期货涨跌参半，新能源材料涨幅居前-20250819

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: The US economic fundamentals remain stable in the short - term, but there are employment and inflation pressures in the medium - term. High - interest rates impact consumption, there is a differentiation in CPI and PPI expectations, and inflation may rebound in autumn, affecting the Fed's decision - making. In the short - term, market risk appetite is expected to remain strong [6]. - Domestic macro: In July, the growth rate of economic data slowed down, with consumption, investment, and credit demand weakening. Exports were the main support for the domestic economy. August exports may remain resilient, but there may be pressure starting from September [6]. - Asset views: In late August, China enters the verification period of the seasonal peak of fixed - asset investment and consumption, and the global central bank summit is a game window for Fed policy. The rise of risk assets is driven by tariff and geopolitical risk mitigation and loose liquidity expectations. As economic growth slows, short - term market volatility may increase [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The US economic fundamentals are stable in the short - term, with pressure in the medium - term. High - interest rates affect consumption, CPI and PPI expectations are different, and inflation may rebound in autumn [6]. - Domestic: July economic data growth slowed, with exports as the main support. August exports may be resilient, but September may face pressure [6]. - Assets: Late August is a key period for investment, consumption, and Fed policy. Risk assets are driven by positive factors, and short - term market volatility may increase as the economy slows [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - Stock index futures: Growth opportunities are spreading, and the short - term judgment is a volatile upward trend [7]. - Stock index options: An offensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The bond market is still under pressure, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - Gold/Silver: Precious metals are expected to strengthen with volatility, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention is paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - Steel products: Inventory is accumulating, and prices are falling from high levels, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Iron ore: Fundamentals are healthy, and prices are slightly回调 after sentiment cools, with a short - term judgment of a volatile trend [7]. - Other products (such as coke, coking coal, etc.): All are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper, aluminum, etc.: Most metals are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, with factors such as supply, demand, and policies affecting prices [7]. - Industrial silicon: It is expected to show a volatile upward trend in the short - term [7]. - Lithium carbonate: It is expected to show a wide - range volatile trend in the short - term [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Supply pressure exists, and the short - term judgment is a volatile downward trend [9]. - Other chemicals: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as supply, demand, and cost [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - Oils and fats: Palm oil is leading the rise, with a short - term judgment of a volatile upward trend [9]. - Other agricultural products: Most are expected to show a volatile trend in the short - term, affected by factors such as weather, supply, and demand [9].