棕油继续领涨，油脂油料偏强运行

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Oils and Fats: Oscillating Strongly [1][5] - Protein Meal: Oscillating [6] - Corn and Starch: Oscillating Weakly [7] - Hogs: Oscillating [9] - Natural Rubber: Oscillating [10] - Synthetic Rubber: Oscillating [14] - Cotton: Oscillating Strongly [15] - Sugar: Oscillating [17] - Pulp: Oscillating [18] - Logs: Oscillating Weakly [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - Mid - term, oils and fats are likely to continue strong due to factors like increased overseas biodiesel demand, potential reduction in US soybean yield, and the approaching palm oil减产 season [1][5]. - The protein meal market may shift from a structure of strong domestic and weak overseas, near - term weak and far - term strong. The futures price is expected to strengthen gradually [6]. - Corn prices may face short - term uncertainty due to old crop de - stocking and a downward trend after new crop listing [7][8]. - Hog prices are expected to oscillate, with a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern in the industry [9]. - Natural rubber prices are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term due to good macro sentiment and short - term fundamental support [13]. - Synthetic rubber prices may oscillate strongly in the short term as butadiene prices are likely to rise slightly [14]. - Cotton prices are expected to oscillate strongly within the range of 13,500 - 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Sugar prices are expected to oscillate weakly in the long term and within the 5,600 - 5,900 yuan range in the short term [17]. - Pulp futures are expected to oscillate, with the main 11 - contract running in the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. - Log prices are expected to run within the 790 - 840 range, with marginal improvement in fundamentals [20][21]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - Market Performance: Last Friday, US soybeans and soybean oil rose due to technical buying. Domestic oils showed a differentiated trend yesterday, with palm oil strong and soybean oil oscillating weakly [1][5]. - Macro Environment: The market has a strong expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut. Last Friday, the US dollar weakened and crude oil prices fell [1][5]. - Industrial Factors: USDA's August report expects a record - high US soybean yield. US soybean exports face uncertainties due to Sino - US trade relations. US biodiesel demand for soybean oil is expected to increase, but this year's demand is down year - on - year. Palm oil is in the production season, with an expected high output in August. Indonesian biodiesel demand for palm oil may be better than expected. China's import of Canadian rapeseed is expected to decline, but imports from other regions may increase [1][5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - International Situation: US soybean good - quality rate is 68%. Brazilian soybean exports have peaked, and the premium has declined. CFTC's net short position in US soybeans has decreased. US soybeans are expected to oscillate around 1,050 cents [6]. - Domestic Situation: The market recognizes near - term inventory pressure and far - term supply gaps. Some oil mills will conduct maintenance or reduce operating rates, and forward - purchase contracts are popular among downstream. The market should watch for Sino - US relations and hog industry impacts on demand [6]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - Price Information: Jinzhou Port's flat - hatch price is 2,300 yuan/ton, and the domestic average corn price is 2,375 yuan/ton [7]. - Supply and Demand: Supply is gradually released, and demand is weak due to low profits in the livestock and deep - processing industries. Policy - related imports have a lower transaction rate. There may be short - term price rebounds in some regions, and new crop supply is expected to be abundant [7][8]. 3.4 Hogs - Price Information: On August 18, the price of Henan's live hogs (outer ternary) was 13.59 yuan/kg, and the futures closing price was 13,820 yuan/ton [9]. - Supply and Demand: Short - term supply is increasing, and mid - term supply is expected to rise due to high sow capacity. Long - term supply may decrease due to anti - involution policies. Demand shows a stable pork - to - hog price ratio and an expanding premium for fat hogs. The industry has a "weak reality + strong expectation" pattern [9]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - Price Information: Qingdao Bonded Area's RMB - denominated Thai mixed rubber is 14,420 yuan/ton, and Thailand's raw material prices have declined [10][12]. - Market Logic: Rubber prices rose last Friday due to rumors of state reserves release and then adjusted. Seasonal factors and various rumors support price increases. Short - term supply may decrease, and demand is stable [13]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - Price Information: The spot price of butadiene rubber has declined, and butadiene prices have shown a mixed trend [14]. - Market Logic: The BR futures followed the overall commodity market's decline. The market is influenced by natural rubber sentiment and butadiene supply shortages. Butadiene prices are expected to rise slightly [14]. 3.7 Cotton - Price Information: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Cotton's 09 contract closed at 13,830 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 14,125 yuan/ton [15]. - Market Logic: Positive factors include the extension of the suspension of mutual tariff increases between China and the US, a reduction in the US cotton output forecast, low domestic commercial inventories, and improved downstream demand. However, new - crop production is expected to increase, and there is pressure on the futures at 14,300 yuan/ton [15][16]. 3.8 Sugar - Price Information: As of August 18, Zhengzhou Sugar's 09 contract closed at 5,736 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract closed at 5,672 yuan/ton [17]. - Market Logic: The market has revised down the forecast of Brazil's sugar production in the new season, which has adjusted the global sugar surplus expectation. The domestic market has limited downside space but faces supply pressure from imports [17]. 3.9 Pulp - Price Information: Shandong's coniferous pulp prices have shown a mixed trend [18]. - Market Logic: The pulp market has both positive and negative factors. Broad - leaf pulp has short - term rebound momentum, but long - term supply and demand are still a concern. The futures are expected to oscillate within the 5,100 - 5,500 range [18]. 3.10 Logs - Market Logic: The market is trading based on the product's fundamentals. Positive factors include increased cost - side valuation and improved port arrival pressure. Negative factors include weak demand, undigested warehouse receipts, and new warehouse receipt registrations. The market is expected to run within the 790 - 840 range [20][21].