贵属策略报：市场?险偏好持稳，??箱体震荡

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk preference remains stable, and gold is in a box - range oscillation due to the slow progress of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks [1] - Gold prices failed to continue the upward trend after a rebound and fell back to around $3340 per ounce. The gold market is affected by geopolitical negotiations and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The gold price trend will mainly depend on the Fed's policy path and geopolitical developments [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Key Information - Trump proposed that the US will cooperate with Russia and Ukraine to provide substantial assistance in the security field. Zelensky is ready for a tri - party meeting and hopes for "all - round" security guarantees. European leaders have different stances on the Russia - Ukraine issue, with Germany calling for a cease - fire first and France suggesting a four - party meeting [2] - Chicago Fed President Goolsbee is "uneasy" about the rise in service inflation, seeing it as a sign of the stagflation impact of tariffs on the economy [2] - China's Premier chaired a meeting, emphasizing the need to consolidate and expand the momentum of economic recovery and complete the annual economic and social development goals, focusing on strengthening the domestic cycle and stimulating consumption potential [2] - China's Ministry of Commerce decided to extend the counter - subsidy investigation of imported dairy products from the EU until February 21, 2026, citing the complexity of the case [2] Price Logic - After the "Trump - Zelensky meeting", Trump proposed a US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party summit, advocating "talking while fighting" and possible "territorial exchanges". Zelensky agreed to participate and demanded comprehensive security guarantees, while Russia also emphasized the need for reliable guarantees. There are obvious differences among parties on cease - fire, security, and territorial issues [3] - The market's expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut in September is rising, and the CME tool shows that the market expects at least two interest - rate cuts this year, which supports the gold price. Although the US dollar has received some buying support due to strong PPI and retail data recently, rising inflation expectations and falling consumer confidence still limit its upside potential [3] Outlook - Next week, focus on Powell's speech at the global central bank annual meeting and the progress of geopolitical conflicts. The weekly range of London gold spot is expected to be between $3300 and $3500, and that of London silver spot is expected to be between $36 and $40 [6] Commodity Index - On August 18, 2025, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities: the composite index was 2231.32, down 0.23%; the commodity 20 index was 2475.86, down 0.28%; the industrial products index was 2267.54, down 0.49% [45] Precious Metals Index - On August 18, 2025, the precious metals index had a daily increase of 0.35%, a 5 - day increase of 0.38%, a 1 - month decrease of 0.39%, and a year - to - date increase of 22.77% [47]