中泰期货晨会纪要-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on fundamental analysis, some commodities are rated as trend bearish, oscillating bearish, oscillating, oscillating bullish, and trend bullish; based on quantitative indicators, some commodities are rated as bearish, oscillating, and bullish [4][7] - The A - share market is on the rise, and the margin trading balance has reached a new high in 10 years. The macro - economic data in July showed a decline, and the government emphasized enhancing the effectiveness of macro - policies [11][15] - Different trading strategies are proposed for various futures products such as stock index futures, treasury bond futures, and commodities in different sectors [15][16] Summary by Directory Macro News - From September 1st, three new conditions for personal pension withdrawal are added. In July, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative increase in the first seven months turned positive [10] - The A - share market is rising, and the margin trading balance has exceeded 2.1 trillion yuan for the first time in 10 years. As of August 19th, over 60% of the disclosed A - share companies in the first half of 2025 achieved year - on - year growth in net profit attributable to the parent [11][12] - The US plans to hold a tri - lateral meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine. The US has expanded the steel and aluminum tariff list, and the US new home starts in July increased by 5.2% month - on - month [12][13] Stock Index Futures - The long - term strategy is to go long on dips, and short - term attention should be paid to adjustments. The A - share market was in a narrow - range oscillation on Tuesday, and the three major indices closed down [15] Treasury Bond Futures - The curve steepening strategy can still be held in the medium - term, and short - term participation in the bond market rebound can be considered. The capital market is tight, and the futures market is stronger than the spot market [16][17] Black Commodities - Steel and ore prices are expected to oscillate. The policy tone is mild, and the seasonal demand is weak, but the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent in the medium term [19] - The prices of coking coal and coke may enter a high - level oscillation stage. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure [20][21] - For ferroalloys, it is recommended to hold previous short positions and take profit on dips if there is a sharp decline. The short - term fundamentals have no rebound logic [21] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - The social inventory of zinc is increasing, and the zinc price is expected to oscillate downward. The supply of zinc is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is weak [26] - The price of lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate widely in the short term. The supply - demand gap is widening, but the price increase space is limited before new production cuts or restarts [27] - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate, and polysilicon is expected to oscillate widely. The supply - demand of industrial silicon has improved marginally, and the polysilicon market is affected by policy expectations [28][29] Agricultural Products - For cotton, a bearish view on the long - term is recommended. The downstream demand is weak, and there is an expected increase in production in the future [31][32] - For sugar, the supply is expected to increase, and the price is under pressure. However, attention should be paid to the rebound opportunity during the Mid - Autumn and National Day holidays [33][34] - For eggs, it is recommended to reduce short positions on dips. The supply pressure is high, but the price may rise seasonally in the short term [35][36] - For apples, a light - position positive spread strategy is recommended. The price of early - maturing apples shows a high - quality - high - price trend [36] - For corn, it is recommended to go short on the 01 contract. The market sentiment is bearish, and the supply - demand is under pressure [37] - For red dates, a wait - and - see strategy is recommended. The spot price is stable, and the futures market is oscillating [39] - For live pigs, a cautious bearish operation on near - month contracts is recommended. The supply pressure remains, and the demand improvement is limited [39][40] Energy and Chemicals - For crude oil, it is recommended to go short on rallies. The market is back to weak fundamentals trading, and the supply is expected to exceed demand [42] - For fuel oil, the price will follow the oil price. The market is affected by multiple factors, and the fundamentals are complex [45] - For plastics, the market sentiment is weakening, and the supply pressure is high. A strategy of selling out - of - the - money call options or a slightly bearish allocation is recommended [46] - For rubber, short - term long positions with stop - loss on dips are recommended, and caution is needed when chasing high prices [47] - For methanol, a bearish oscillation strategy is recommended, and short positions can be reduced [48] - For caustic soda, futures long positions can take profit on rallies. The spot market is strong in the short term, but the futures market is skeptical about the long - term high price [49][50] - For asphalt, the price follows the oil price. The fundamentals are stable, and it is in the off - season turning to the peak season [51] - For the polyester industry chain, it is expected to oscillate in a range, and a strategy of going long on PTA processing fees can be considered [52] - For liquefied petroleum gas, the price is likely to fall. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak in the medium - long term [52] - For pulp, it is recommended to observe the port de - stocking and spot trading improvement. The market is affected by news and sentiment [53] - For urea, it is recommended to take profit on long positions. The spot market is oversupplied in the short term [54]