中原期货晨会纪要-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of various industries including chemicals, agriculture, macro - economy, and finance. It provides price data, market trends, and investment suggestions for different products and markets. There is a focus on the supply - demand dynamics, policy impacts, and market sentiment in each sector [4][6][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Chemicals - Price Changes: On August 20, 2025, most chemical products' prices decreased compared to August 19. For example, the price of coking coal dropped from 1,194.50 to 1,156.50, a decrease of 38.0 with a decline rate of 3.181%. However, some products like asphalt and methanol saw price increases [4]. 3.2 Macro - Economy - Policy Updates: From September 1, 2025, three new conditions for personal pension withdrawal are added. The central bank increases the re - loan quota for supporting agriculture and small businesses by 100 billion yuan [6][7]. - Corporate Earnings: Xiaomi Group's Q2 2025 financial report shows significant growth in revenue and adjusted net profit. Its automotive business is approaching profitability [6]. - Fiscal Data: In July 2025, the national general public budget revenue increased by 2.6% year - on - year, and the cumulative growth in the first seven months turned positive [6]. 3.3 Main Product Morning Meeting Views 3.3.1 Agricultural Products - Sugar: On August 19, the sugar futures contract had a narrow - range oscillation. The supply - demand situation is mixed. It is recommended to operate in the 5600 - 5700 yuan range, with a long - position trial if it breaks through 5700 yuan [9]. - Corn: On August 19, the corn futures contract continued its weakening trend. With supply pressure and demand constraints, a short - selling strategy is suggested [9]. - Pig: The spot price of pigs is stable. The supply - demand game continues, and the futures market is bearish [9]. - Egg: The spot price of eggs may rebound due to downstream demand, but the futures market may decline to repair the basis. A short - selling strategy on the futures and a reverse spread strategy between months are recommended [9][10]. - Cotton: Internationally, the 25/26 cotton supply is sufficient. Domestically, the new cotton production is expected to increase. The cotton price may oscillate in the short term [10]. 3.3.2 Energy and Chemicals - Urea: The domestic urea price is rising, and the daily production is slightly increasing. The demand from compound fertilizer enterprises is growing, but the high inventory of autumn fertilizers may suppress production. Attention should be paid to export and Indian tender news [10]. - Caustic Soda: The price of caustic soda in Shandong is expected to rise steadily in the short term. A long - position strategy for the 2511 contract is recommended [10]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The supply of coking coal and coke is stable, and the price may oscillate weakly in the short term. Attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production and supply disruptions [10]. 3.3.3 Industrial Metals - Copper and Aluminum: The copper price is oscillating due to a lack of new macro - drivers. The aluminum price is expected to adjust at a high level, waiting for the demand in the peak seasons [11]. - Alumina: The supply of alumina is increasing, and the demand is stable. The price is weak, and attention should be paid to the supply of bauxite [11]. - Steel Products: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils are oscillating weakly. The supply - demand situation is different for the two products [11]. - Ferroalloys: The prices of silicon - iron and silicon - manganese decreased significantly on August 19. The market is expected to oscillate widely in the short term [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of lithium carbonate decreased on August 19. The supply and demand are both increasing. A long - position strategy can be considered if it stabilizes in the 86000 - 88000 yuan range [11][12]. 3.3.4 Options and Finance - Options: On August 19, the A - share market had different trends in options. Trend investors can focus on the strength - weakness arbitrage opportunities, and volatility investors can sell wide - straddles to short - sell volatility [14]. - Stock Index: The A - share market had a short - term adjustment on August 19. The market is still strong, and a slow - bull market is expected. It is recommended to pay attention to the low - buying opportunities of IF, IM, and IC [15][17][18].