黑色建材日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market was weak yesterday, and the prices of finished steel products showed a weak and fluctuating trend. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively restored, steel prices may not maintain their current levels, and the futures prices may gradually return to the supply - demand logic [3]. - For iron ore, although the current supply pressure is not significant, the short - term upward increase in hot metal may be limited, and the futures price may adjust slightly [6]. - For ferrosilicon and manganese silicon, due to the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices have dropped significantly. It is recommended that investment positions remain on the sidelines, while hedging positions can participate opportunistically. In the long - term, the demand for both may weaken marginally [7][8][9]. - For industrial silicon and polysilicon, industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate weakly, and polysilicon is expected to fluctuate widely [13][14]. - For glass and soda ash, both are expected to fluctuate in the short - term. In the long - term, glass prices may follow macro - sentiment, and soda ash prices are expected to have a gradually rising price center, but their upward space may be limited [16][17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Products a. Price and Inventory Data - The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3126 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton (- 0.91%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 15,137 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 1,199 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated prices in Tianjin and Shanghai decreased by 20 yuan/ton [2]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3416 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (- 0.08%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts increased by 880 tons, and the main contract positions decreased by 17,753 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price in Lecong increased by 10 yuan/ton, while that in Shanghai remained unchanged [2]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Rebar demand decreased significantly this week, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate increased. Hot - rolled coil demand recovered significantly, with production basically flat compared to last week, and the inventory accumulation rate slowed down. Currently, both rebar and hot - rolled coil inventories are on the rise marginally, and although the profit of steel mills is good and production remains high, the demand - side support is insufficient [3]. Iron Ore a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract (I2601) of iron ore closed at 771.00 yuan/ton, with a change of - 0.13% (- 1.00), and the positions increased by 674 lots to 449,600 lots. The weighted positions were 863,700 lots. The spot price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 768 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.81 yuan/ton and a basis rate of 5.49% [5]. b. Fundamental Analysis - In terms of supply, the latest overseas iron ore shipments and arrivals both increased. In terms of demand, the average daily hot metal output increased. In the inventory, port inventories increased slightly, and steel mill imported ore inventories increased significantly. The apparent demand for the five major steel products continued to weaken [6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - On August 19, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM509) closed down 3.05% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) closed down 3.44% at 5678 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin decreased by 100 yuan/ton [7]. b. Fundamental Analysis - Affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment, the prices of ferrosilicon and manganese silicon have dropped significantly. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon has not changed, and its production has increased recently. The demand for both may weaken marginally in the future [8][9]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon a. Price and Inventory Data - The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) closed at 8625 yuan/ton, up 0.23% (+ 20). The weighted contract positions decreased by 15,419 lots to 537,492 lots. The main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) closed at 52,260 yuan/ton, down 0.04% (- 20). The weighted contract positions increased by 1889 lots to 323,092 lots [11][13]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For industrial silicon, the problems of over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand have not changed. The demand in August can provide some support, but it is expected to fluctuate weakly. For polysilicon, the supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to fluctuate widely [12][13][14]. Glass and Soda Ash a. Price and Inventory Data - The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1160 yuan, unchanged from the previous day, and that in Central China was 1090 yuan, also unchanged. As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million heavy boxes, up 2.55% month - on - month. The spot price of soda ash was 1230 yuan, down 30 yuan from the previous day. As of August 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8973 million tons, up 0.18% from last Thursday [16][17]. b. Fundamental Analysis - For glass, although the fundamentals are under pressure, the price adjustment space is limited. In the long - term, it follows macro - sentiment. For soda ash, it is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long - term, but the upward space is limited [16][17].