宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The iron ore market is expected to continue its oscillatory adjustment due to a weakening supply - demand pattern. The price of iron ore is likely to be under pressure, and investors should pay attention to the MA5 line pressure and the steel mills' production situation [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term view is oscillatory and weak, the medium - term view is oscillatory, and the intraday view is also oscillatory and weak. The suggestion is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA5 line. The core logic is the weakening supply - demand pattern and the continuation of price adjustment [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. Steel mills' production is stabilizing, and the terminal consumption of ore has slightly increased from a high level, showing some demand resilience which supports the ore price. However, the profit of steel mills is shrinking, limiting the incremental space and weakening the positive effect. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has rebounded, and the shipments from miners have increased significantly to a yearly high. Overseas ore supply has recovered as expected, and domestic ore production has also resumed. Ore supply has returned to a high level. - Overall, although the demand shows some resilience, the supply is at a high level and the positive effect of demand is weakening. The fundamentals of the ore market are weak, and combined with poor market sentiment, the over - valued ore price will continue to adjust oscillatory [2].