研究所晨会观点精萃-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the market anticipates the possible end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict, leading to a decline in global risk - aversion sentiment. The market awaits the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium for US interest - rate policy clues, with the US dollar remaining volatile and global risk appetite rising. Domestically, China's economic data in July slowed down and fell short of expectations. Policy stimulus expectations are strengthening, and the short - term uncertainty of tariff risks has decreased, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term, with a short - term cautious long - position strategy. Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level, and it is advisable to watch cautiously. In the commodity sector, black commodities are expected to correct in the short term, non - ferrous metals to oscillate, energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly, and precious metals to oscillate at a high level, all with a cautious watching strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macroeconomic and Financial - Macroeconomic Situation: Overseas, the expected end of the Russia - Ukraine conflict reduces global risk - aversion, and the market awaits US interest - rate policy clues. Domestically, economic data in July was weak, but policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced [2]. - Asset Performance and Strategies: The stock index is expected to oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term (cautious long - position). Treasury bonds are expected to oscillate and correct at a high level (cautious watching). Black commodities are expected to correct (cautious watching), non - ferrous metals to oscillate (cautious watching), energy and chemicals to oscillate weakly (cautious watching), and precious metals to oscillate at a high level (cautious watching) [2]. Stock Index - Market Performance: The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, military, and securities sectors. - Fundamentals and Policy: China's economic data in July was weak. Policy stimulus expectations are rising, and the short - term tariff risk uncertainty is reduced. The short - term upward macro - driving force is weakening, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. A short - term cautious long - position strategy is recommended [3]. Precious Metals - Market Performance: Precious metals declined slightly on Tuesday. The probability of a September interest - rate cut fell below 90%, and inflation data showed resistance to the decline in inflation. - Outlook: The long - term positive logic remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to entry opportunities at key points [4]. Black Metals Steel - Market Performance: Steel futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volumes. - Fundamentals: Demand is weakening, inventory is rising, and high - temperature and rainy weather restricts building material demand. Supply is showing signs of reduction, and a short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [4][5]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: Iron ore futures and spot prices continued to decline slightly on Tuesday. - Fundamentals: Steel profits are high, but iron - making water production may decline due to approaching events. Supply is increasing, and port inventory is rising. Iron ore prices may weaken in the short term [5]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Performance: Spot and futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined on Tuesday. - Fundamentals: Manufacturers' production enthusiasm is high, and production capacity is increasing. A short - term oscillating and weakening trend is expected [6]. Soda Ash - Market Performance: The main soda ash contract was weak on Tuesday. - Fundamentals: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The high - supply, high - inventory, and weak - demand pattern persists, and the upside space is limited [7]. Glass - Market Performance: The main glass contract was weak on Tuesday. - Fundamentals: Supply is stable, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits are decreasing. The price has declined recently [7]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy Copper - Market Performance: The US economy is slowing down, and copper demand is expected to weaken. - Outlook: Copper prices may not remain strong in the long run as supply is relatively sufficient and demand is weakening [9]. Aluminum - Market Performance: Aluminum prices declined on Tuesday, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market was weak. - Fundamentals: Domestic social inventory is rising, and the medium - term upside space is limited. The short - term oscillation trend is expected, but the rebound foundation is weakening [9]. Aluminum Alloy - Market Performance: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and production costs are rising. - Outlook: The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand [9]. Tin - Market Performance: The combined operating rate in Yunnan and Jiangxi decreased slightly. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory decreased this week. - Outlook: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term, but the upside space is restricted by high - tariff risks, production resumption expectations, and weak demand [10]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: The main lithium carbonate contract declined on Tuesday. - Fundamentals: There is a short - term positive impact on supply, and the industry profit is improving. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. Industrial Silicon - Market Performance: The main industrial silicon contract declined on Tuesday. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate within a range as black commodities weaken and polysilicon oscillates [11]. Polysilicon - Market Performance: The main polysilicon contract declined on Tuesday. - Fundamentals: The number of warehouse receipts is increasing, and the industry is promoting self - regulation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [12][13]. Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Market Performance: Oil prices declined slightly as the market assesses the prospects of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict. - Outlook: Oil prices are expected to remain weak in the long term [14]. Asphalt - Market Performance: The asphalt price is following the decline of crude oil, and the spot market is weak. - Outlook: It is expected to remain in a weak oscillation pattern as inventory reduction is limited [14]. PX - Market Performance: Crude oil price decline led to a correction in the energy - chemical sector. PX is in a tight supply situation in the short term. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate and wait for changes in PTA plants [14]. PTA - Market Performance: Pakistan's anti - dumping on PTA exports has a limited impact. Downstream demand has rebounded slightly. - Outlook: The supply is limited, and demand is rising slightly. The price is supported but the upside space is restricted [15]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: Port inventory has decreased slightly, and downstream demand has rebounded. - Outlook: Supply and demand are expected to increase slightly, and it will maintain an oscillating pattern [15]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: The short - fiber price declined due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased slightly. - Outlook: It may continue to be short - sold in the medium term, waiting for further improvement in terminal orders [15]. Methanol - Market Performance: There is a regional differentiation, with the inland strong and the port weak. - Outlook: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [16][17]. PP - Market Performance: Supply pressure is increasing, and downstream demand is rising slightly. - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for peak - season restocking [17]. LLDPE - Market Performance: Supply pressure remains high, and demand is showing signs of improvement. - Outlook: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly, and the 01 contract should be monitored for demand and restocking [17]. Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Market Performance: The CBOT November soybean contract declined. The market is waiting for the results of the ProFarmer crop tour. - Field Conditions: The number of soybean pods in some states is higher than average, and moist soil may promote growth [18]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Performance: The pressure of soybean and soybean meal inventory in domestic oil mills has eased. - Supply Situation: Canadian rapeseed imports are restricted, but the purchase of Australian rapeseed may diversify supply sources [19]. Soybean and Rapeseed Oil - Market Performance: Rapeseed oil port inventory is decreasing, and soybean oil has high - inventory pressure in the short term. - Outlook: Rapeseed oil supply is expected to shrink, and soybean oil's supply - demand situation will improve in the fourth quarter [19]. Fats and Oils - Market Performance: International crude oil and Chicago soybean oil prices declined, which will drag down the Malaysian palm oil market. - Fundamentals: Palm oil production has a small increase, and exports have improved significantly. However, the inverted price difference may affect future demand [19]. Corn - Market Performance: Northeast corn prices are weak, and the market is inactive. - Supply Outlook: New corn will be listed in August, and the supply is expected to be sufficient. Corn futures are weak [20]. Pigs - Market Performance: The spot pig price is weak, and the supply is increasing. - Outlook: The price decline has slowed down, and attention should be paid to the consumption peak during the start of the school term [20][21].