国新国证期货早报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 19, A - share major indices oscillated, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.12%, and ChiNext Index down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets shrank by 175.8 billion yuan compared to the previous day. Different futures varieties showed diverse trends, affected by various factors such as supply - demand, policies, and international events [1]. 3. Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On August 19, the A - share major indices oscillated. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3727.29, down 0.02%; the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 11821.63, down 0.12%; the ChiNext Index closed at 2601.74, down 0.17%. The trading volume of the two markets was 2588.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 175.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index adjusted and consolidated, closing at 4223.37, down 16.04 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: Due to an approaching major event, there is a renewed expectation of production restrictions in coking plants in East China. After the seventh price increase, coking profits have improved, and daily coking production has slightly increased. The overall coke inventory is decreasing, and traders' purchasing willingness is strong. The carbon element supply is abundant, and the high - level of downstream hot metal during the off - season, along with the market sentiment on coal over - production inspection, drives the coke price. The coke futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectation [2]. - Coking Coal: The output of coking coal mines has decreased. The spot auction market is doing well, with rising transaction prices. The terminal inventory remains flat. The total coking coal inventory has decreased month - on - month, and the decline in production - end inventory has narrowed. It is likely to continue destocking in the short term [2]. Zhengzhou Sugar (Zheng Sugar) - Brazil exported 1,883,277.33 tons of sugar in the first two weeks of August, with an average daily export volume of 171,207.03 tons, a 4% decrease compared to the average daily export volume in August last year. Affected by the concern of decreased demand, US sugar oscillated and declined on Monday. Due to the decline of US sugar and the relatively large import volume in July, the short - sellers pressured the Zheng Sugar 2601 contract, which oscillated downward on Tuesday and at night [2]. Rubber (Hu Jiao) - Thailand's meteorological agency warned of possible floods from August 21 - 25, and the Southeast Asian spot quotation is firm. The decline in oil prices and the news of tri - lateral talks between Russia, Ukraine, and the US may lead to the lifting of sanctions on Russian crude oil. Affected by these factors, Hu Jiao oscillated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Tuesday. Due to the significant increase in inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone last week, Hu Jiao oscillated lower at night. As of August 17, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao's bonded and general trade areas was 616,700 tons, a decrease of 3100 tons (0.50%) from the previous period. The bonded area inventory increased by 2.12% to 76,900 tons, and the general trade inventory decreased by 0.87% to 539,800 tons [3][4]. Palm Oil - On August 19, palm oil reached a new high, but in the afternoon, long - position holders took profits, causing the price to give back some gains at the end of the session. The main contract P2601 closed with a small doji star with an upper shadow, closing at 9640, up 0.58% from the previous day. From August 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield per unit decreased by 1.78% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate increased by 0.51% month - on - month, and the output increased by 0.88% month - on - month [4]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on August 19, CBOT soybean futures oscillated and closed lower. The US Department of Agriculture maintained the soybean crop condition rating at 68% in the weekly report, the same as last year and the highest since 2020. Domestically, on August 19, the M2601 main contract closed at 3163 yuan/ton, up 0.19%. Currently, the supply of imported soybeans is abundant, oil mills are operating at a high capacity, and the soybean meal inventory is high. Although the Brazilian premium has slightly declined, the high price of US soybeans keeps the domestic import cost high. The expected tightening of supply in the fourth quarter provides support for the soybean meal market. Future focus should be on the weather in the producing areas and soybean imports [5]. Live Hogs - On August 19, the live hog futures price oscillated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13900 yuan/ton, up 0.58%. Currently, it is the off - season for pork consumption, and the high - temperature weather has led to weak terminal demand. The order volume of major pig - raising enterprises is low, and the operation level is low, suppressing the price. In August, the production capacity is being realized, the supply of suitable - weight pigs has increased, and the planned slaughter of group pig - raising enterprises has increased month - on - month. Although the number of secondary fattening has increased, the overall scale is limited. The live hog market is currently in a state of loose supply and demand. Future attention should be paid to policy regulation, hog slaughter rhythm, and weight changes [6]. Iron Ore - On August 19, the iron ore 2601 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.64%, closing at 771 yuan. The global iron ore shipment and arrival volume have increased, and the port inventory has continued to rise. The hot metal output has slightly increased, but with the tightening of environmental protection policies in the north before the September parade, there is an expectation of hot metal production reduction. In the short term, the iron ore price will oscillate [6]. Asphalt - On August 19, the asphalt 2510 main contract oscillated and closed lower, down 0.6%, closing at 3453 yuan. Last week, the asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased month - on - month, the shipment volume continued to decline, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamentals lack obvious drivers, and the asphalt price will oscillate in the short term [6]. Log - On August 19, the 25091 log contract opened at 809.5, with a low of 807, a high of 816.5, and closed at 810.5, with a daily reduction of 1113 lots. Attention should be paid to the support at 800 and the resistance at 820. The spot prices of medium - grade A radiata pine logs in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged from the previous day. Customs data on the 18th showed that the log import volume in July was 2.5 million cubic meters, a 17.7% year - on - year decrease, and the cumulative import volume from January - July decreased by 11.7% year - on - year. The increase in the overseas quotation has driven up the domestic futures price. There is no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and there is a game between strong expectations and weak reality. The spot trading is weak. Attention should be paid to the spot price during the peak season, import data, inventory changes, and the support of macro - expectations and market sentiment on the price [7]. Cotton - On Tuesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13955 yuan/ton. On August 20, the minimum basis quotation at the Xinjiang designated delivery (supervision) warehouse of the National Cotton Trading Market was 1070 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 166 lots from the previous day. India announced on August 18 that it will fully exempt cotton import tariffs and agricultural surcharges from August 19 to September 30 [7][8]. Shanghai Copper (Hu Tong) - Shanghai copper oscillated with a slight decline. On the one hand, the concentrated arrival of imported copper in Shanghai has increased the inventory, and there is still pressure on subsequent shipments, which may lead to a decline in the spot premium and affect the futures price. On the other hand, it is the off - season for copper consumption, and the demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, so the consumption side cannot strongly boost the price. In the long term, the new - energy demand provides some support for the price, and the expected increase in copper mine production but the decline in the global refined copper supply growth rate in 2025 will also affect the price [8]. Steel - On August 19, the rb2510 contract closed at 3126 yuan/ton, and the hc2510 contract closed at 3416 yuan/ton. The demand for steel in the off - season continues to decline, and the supply - demand pressure has increased. Considering the planned production restrictions of Tangshan steel mills at the end of August and early September, the market bearish sentiment is not strong. The raw materials have shown different trends, with coke starting the seventh price increase and Shagang reducing the scrap steel purchase price by 30 yuan/ton. In the short term, the steel price may oscillate weakly [8]. Alumina - On August 19, the ao2601 contract closed at 3120 yuan/ton. Recently, the production reduction of some alumina plants has slightly decreased the operating capacity and output. However, the raw material inventory of aluminum plants has reached a historical high, and the提货 willingness has weakened, leading to a slowdown in demand and an increase in inventory. With the expected release of new production capacity, there is still pressure on supply surplus. Attention should be paid to the potential impact of production reduction policies around Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei on alumina production. Currently, the market is mixed, with the rapid increase in warehouse receipt inventory competing with structural shortages, and the alumina price will continue to oscillate [9]. Shanghai Aluminum (Hu Lu) - On August 19, the al2510 contract closed at 20545 yuan/ton. The aluminum price maintains a weak range structure, oscillating with low trading volume. The center of the price range is lower, and it oscillates narrowly. Downstream buyers are mostly waiting and watching. The high inventory of aluminum ingots puts pressure on the spot price. Although there is an expectation of stockpiling before the peak season, the high inventory and weak aluminum price have limited support for the premium [9].