碳酸锂日评：谨防情绪回落，持仓注意保护-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The profit margin expands, lithium carbonate production rebounds, downstream demand rises, and social inventory is depleted. In the short term, both supply and demand are strengthening. However, due to the continuous fluctuations in the Jiangxi mining end, there is a need to guard against price drops caused by "anti - involution." It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate widely. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading and appropriately buy options for protection (Viewpoint score: 0) [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data of Lithium Carbonate Futures - On August 19, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures decreased compared to the previous day, with decreases of 1,720, 1,680, 1,820, and 1,820 yuan/ton respectively. The closing price of the active contract was 87,540 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,700 yuan/ton from the previous day [1] - The trading volume of the active contract was 734,929 lots (-301,399), and the open interest was 414,097 lots (-7,009) [1] - The inventory was 23,615 tons (+60) [1] Price of Lithium - Related Products - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 85,700 yuan/ton (+1,100), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 83,400 yuan/ton (+1,100). The price difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 2,300 yuan/ton [1] - The average price of lithium hydroxide (56.5% battery - grade CIF China, Japan, and South Korea) was 8.85 US dollars/kg, unchanged from the previous day. The average price of domestic battery - grade coarse - particle lithium hydroxide was 77,740 yuan/ton (+1,000), and the average price of domestic battery - grade micron - powder lithium hydroxide was 82,710 yuan/ton (+1,000) [1] Inventory of Lithium Carbonate - The SMM lithium carbonate inventory: The inventory of smelters was 49,693 tons (-1,306), the inventory of downstream users was 48,283 tons (+124), and the inventory of others was 44,280 tons (+1,020). The total inventory was 142,256 tons (-162) [1] Industry News - Jiangte Motor (002176.SZ) announced that its wholly - owned subsidiary, Xuancheng Jinkong New Energy Co., Ltd., has completed equipment maintenance and will resume production soon. The maintenance aimed to reduce production costs and ensure the safe and stable operation of production equipment [1] Supply and Demand Situation - On the cost side, the prices of spodumene concentrate and lithium mica remained unchanged. In terms of supply, the production of lithium carbonate increased last week. In terms of downstream demand, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased last week. In August, the production schedule of lithium cobaltate decreased, and the production schedule of lithium manganate increased. The production of power batteries increased last week. In terms of terminal demand, in July, although the year - on - year growth rate of new energy vehicle production and sales continued, the sales volume decreased month - on - month, and the 3C shipments were average. In August, the production of energy - storage batteries increased [1]