国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：绿色金融与新能源-20250820

Report Overview - The report is a commodity research morning report on green finance and new energy by Guotai Junan Futures, dated August 20, 2025 [1] 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - Nickel: The fundamentals suggest a narrow - range oscillation, and attention should be paid to news - related risks [2][4] - Stainless steel: There is a game between macro - expectations and reality, and steel prices will oscillate [2][4] - Lithium carbonate: It will oscillate within a range, and attention should be paid to supply disturbances [2][10] - Industrial silicon: Market sentiment has weakened [2][14] - Polysilicon: Market news has boosted sentiment [2][15] 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 120,330 yuan, down 10 yuan from T - 1. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,885 yuan, down 125 yuan from T - 1. There were also detailed data on trading volume, prices of related products in the industrial chain, and profit margins [4] - News: Multiple events in the nickel industry, such as potential export restrictions from Canada, new production in Indonesia, environmental issues in Indonesian industrial parks, changes in mining quotas, production suspensions due to losses, and production cuts in Chinese steel mills [4][5][6][7] - Trend Intensity: Both nickel and stainless - steel trend intensities are 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Lithium Carbonate - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the 2509 contract was 87,580 yuan, down 1,720 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, and prices of related products in the lithium - salt industry chain [11] - News: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price increased, and Jiangte Motor's subsidiary resumed production [12][13] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [13] Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Fundamental Data: The Si2511 closing price was 8,625 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1. The PS2511 closing price was 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1. There were also data on trading volume, open interest, basis, prices, profits, and inventories of related products [15] - News: T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers from Corning, with expected deliveries starting in the second half of 2026 [15][17] - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity of industrial silicon is - 1 (weak), and that of polysilicon is 1 (strong) [17]