软商品日报：印度棉花产量预期增加，短期震荡运行-20250820

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both sugar and cotton is "Shock" [1] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - From July, extreme rainfall in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia affected local sugarcane and sugar beet crops, and the potential impact on sugar production needs continuous monitoring. Summer cold - drink consumption drives seasonal growth in sugar demand. Although recent sugar imports have increased significantly due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets, the annual import volume is still expected to be within the forecast range [1] - Most cotton - growing areas in China are at the peak of flowering, and some areas in Xinjiang have entered the boll - opening stage, with the overall growth progress ahead of previous years. In August, cotton in Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin faces a high risk of heat damage due to high temperatures and insufficient precipitation. Currently, commercial cotton inventories are decreasing, and the peak season for cotton textile is approaching, which supports cotton prices [1] Group 3: Summary of Data 1. Price Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, the price of US sugar decreased by 1.40% to $16.24, and the price of US cotton increased by 0.53% to $67.84. Among domestic spot prices, the price of Nanning sugar remained unchanged at 5980 yuan, Kunming sugar decreased by 0.09% to 5855 yuan, the cotton index 328 decreased by 0.12% to 3280, and Xinjiang cotton increased by 0.33% to 15100 yuan [3] 2. Spread Changes - From August 17 - 18, 2025, SR01 - 05 increased by 9.52% to 46, SR05 - 09 increased by 6.78% to - 110, SR09 - 01 decreased by 15.79% to 64, CF01 - 05 increased by 33.33% to 40, CF05 - 09 remained unchanged at 255, and CF09 - 01 decreased by 3.51% to - 295. The basis of sugar 01 decreased by 6.63% to 183, sugar 05 decreased by 3.78% to 229, sugar 09 decreased by 0.83% to 119, cotton 01 increased by 1.19% to 1109, cotton 05 increased by 2.04% to 1149, and cotton 09 increased by 1.67% to 1404 [3] 3. Import Price and Profit Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA decreased by 0.31% to 79.15, and the sugar import profit increased by 2.79% to 1565 [3] 4. Option Information - For options, the implied volatility of SR601C5700 is 0.0832 with a futures underlying of SR601 and a historical volatility of 6.18; the implied volatility of SR601P5700 is 0.084. The implied volatility of CF601C14200 is 0.1094 with a futures underlying of CF601 and a historical volatility of 5.61; the implied volatility of CF601P14200 is 0.1099 [3] 5. Warehouse Receipt Changes - From August 15 - 18, 2025, the number of sugar warehouse receipts decreased by 1.01% to 16931, and the number of cotton warehouse receipts decreased by 0.86% to 7762 [3] Group 4: Company Information - Xinda Futures Co., Ltd. is a limited - liability company specializing in domestic futures business. It is wholly - owned by Xinda Securities Co., Ltd., with a registered capital of 600 million yuan. It is a comprehensive settlement member of the China Financial Futures Exchange, a full - fledged member of the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, and Dalian Commodity Exchange, and a member of the Shanghai International Energy Exchange and Guangzhou Futures Exchange [8]