国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250820

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides trend and strategy outlooks for multiple commodities in the black series, including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. The views are as follows: - Iron ore: Macroeconomic risk appetite has not significantly declined, and support remains [2][5]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Both are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations [2][8][9]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: The market is biased towards fundamentals, with weak and volatile trends [2][13]. - Coke and coking coal: Both are expected to fluctuate at high levels [2][16]. - Logs: The price will fluctuate repeatedly [2][19]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamental Data: The futures price closed at 771.0 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton (- 0.13%). The open interest increased by 674 to 449,577 lots. Among spot prices, the price of Carajás fines (65%) rose by 2.0 yuan/ton to 877.0 yuan/ton, while PB fines (61.5%) dropped by 2.0 yuan/ton to 768.0 yuan/ton [6]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [6]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Fundamental Data: For rebar (RB2510), the closing price was 3,126 yuan/ton, down 47 yuan/ton (- 1.48%), with a trading volume of 1,121,791 lots and an open interest of 1,608,694 lots, a decrease of 1,199 lots. For hot - rolled coil (HC2510), the closing price was 3,416 yuan/ton, down 13 yuan/ton (- 0.38%), with a trading volume of 380,711 lots and an open interest of 1,184,978 lots, a decrease of 17,753 lots. Spot prices generally declined [9]. - Macro and Industry News: From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. In early August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 20.74 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.074 million tons (a 4.7% increase in daily output month - on - month); 19.14 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.914 million tons (a 3.2% increase in daily output month - on - month); and 20.05 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.005 million tons (a 4.1% decrease in daily output month - on - month). Other macro and industry data are also provided [10][11]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for rebar is - 1 (weak), and for hot - rolled coil is 0 (neutral) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamental Data: For ferrosilicon 2509, the closing price was 5,500 yuan/ton, down 210 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 44,328 lots and an open interest of 41,200 lots. For silicomanganese 2509, the closing price was 5,842 yuan/ton, down 184 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 193,093 lots and an open interest of 114,885 lots. Spot prices also declined [13]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 19, the price ranges of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported. The manganese ore market was generally stable with narrow fluctuations [14]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is - 1 (weak) [15]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamental Data: For coking coal (JM2601), the closing price was 1,194.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton (0.6%), with a trading volume of 1,364,959 lots and an open interest of 713,865 lots, a decrease of 2,226 lots. For coke (J2601), the closing price was 1,708.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan/ton (0.4%), with a trading volume of 26,198 lots and an open interest of 38,416 lots, a decrease of 129 lots. Spot prices showed mixed trends [16]. - Macro and Industry News: On August 15, the Trump administration in the US announced an expansion of the scope of the 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports, including hundreds of derivative products [17]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity for both coke and coking coal is 0 (neutral) [18]. Logs - Fundamental Data: The closing prices, trading volumes, and open interests of different log futures contracts showed different trends. Spot prices of various types of logs remained stable [20]. - Macro and Industry News: In July, in 70 large and medium - sized cities, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings in all tiers of cities declined month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline generally narrowed [22]. - Trend Intensity: The trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [22].