宏源期货品种策略日报：油脂油料-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report -地缘冲突 persists, with Trump's meetings with leaders of Ukraine and major European countries yielding no clear results. South American oil supply increases and the production of sanctioned countries remains strong, pressuring oil prices to decline gradually. [2] - Two 800,000 - ton PX plants in South China will restart soon, restoring PX supply. PX inventory is at a historical low, providing strong support at the bottom. Whether PX profitability can continue to rise depends on unexpected factors. [2] - Recently, there are more PTA plant overhauls, and the low processing fee continues to be favorable. The PTA market has a small increase, and the spot offer basis strengthens. However, with new plant commissioning expected on the supply - side and weak demand in the off - season, it's difficult to boost prices. [2] - The polyester bottle - chip market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is trading between 5880 - 5970 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side quotes mostly increase, and downstream demand is for rigid needs, with a general trading atmosphere. [2] - Without unexpected good news, it is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will run in a volatile manner. [2] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Price Information - Upstream: On August 19, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.35/barrel, down 1.69% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $65.79/barrel, down 1.22%; naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $574.50/ton, up 0.66%; isomeric xylene FOB Korea was $676.00/ton, down 0.66% [1] - PTA Price: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4734 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.25%; settlement price was 4746 yuan/ton, up 0.42%. Domestic PTA spot price was 4666 yuan/ton, up 0.15%. [1] - PX Price: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6774 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, up 0.21%; settlement price was 6792 yuan/ton, up 1.34%. Domestic p - xylene spot price on August 18 was 6609 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. [1] - PR Price: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5906 yuan/ton on August 19, 2025, down 0.37%; settlement price was 5916 yuan/ton, up 0.34%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in East China and South China remained unchanged at 5920 yuan/ton and 5940 yuan/ton respectively. [1] - Downstream Price: CCFEI price indices of most downstream products such as polyester filament and bottle - grade chips remained unchanged on August 19, 2025, while the price indices of polyester staple fiber and polyester chips increased slightly, up 0.31% and 0.34% respectively. [2] 3.2 Spread Information - On August 19, 2025, the PXN spread was $260.50/ton, down 0.79%; the PX - MX spread was $159.00/ton, up 4.04%. [1] - The PTA near - far month spread was - 50 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 44 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PX basis was - 165 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton from the previous value. The PR basis in East China and South China markets increased by 22 yuan/ton. [1] 3.3 Production and Sales Information - On August 19, 2025, the PX operating rate was 80.38%, unchanged; the PTA plant load rate was 75.09%, down 2.58 percentage points; the polyester plant load rate remained at 87.30%. [1] - The sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips increased by 5.30%, 12.63%, and 11.05% respectively on August 19, 2025. [1] 3.4 Device Information - Ningbo Taihua's 1.5 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 7, expected to last for 2 months; Yisheng Dalian's 2.25 million - ton PTA plant started maintenance on August 8, expected to last for 1 month; Yisheng Hainan's 2 million - ton PTA plant is planned for technical renovation from August 15 for 3 months. [2] 3.5 Transaction Strategy - After the price correction, it maintains a volatile trend. The TA2601 contract closed at 4734 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 549,300 lots; the PX2601 contract closed at 6774 yuan/ton (up 1.07%), with a daily trading volume of 222,000 lots; the PR2511 contract closed at 5906 yuan/ton (up 0.17%), with a daily trading volume of 42,600 lots. [2]