贵金属：关注杰克逊霍尔会议中鲍威尔的表态

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The current US labor market has weakened significantly, and inflation still faces risks brought by tariffs, which allows the Fed to make relatively cautious statements on monetary policy in the near term. However, the Trump administration's interference with the Fed's independence is more significant, and Fed officials' statements on inflation vary greatly. After the release of non - farm data lower than expected, the objectivity of US economic data will be weakened, and Fed officials' views on monetary policy will have a greater impact on market expectations. Therefore, it is necessary to focus on Fed Chairman Powell's statement at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting this week, and the precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. US July PPI Data Shows Inflation Concerns, but Fed Officials' Statements Differ - US July CPI and PPI data show concerns about imported inflation. The overall CPI was lower than expected due to the decline in oil prices in July, while the core CPI was higher than expected mainly due to the sharp increase in used - car inflation and the impact of home - furniture prices. The US July PPI and import price data far exceeded expectations, indicating that the Trump administration's tariff policy has begun to have a significant impact on US prices [4]. - Fed officials' statements on inflation vary. Chicago Fed President Goolsbee believes that the data shows an "unsettling trend" in inflation, but he hopes to wait for more economic data and advocates further interest - rate cuts under the conditions of slowing inflation and a stable labor market. St. Louis Fed President Musalem believes that tariffs are being transmitted to inflation, and a 50 - basis - point interest - rate cut in September does not match the currently announced economic data [5]. II. The US Labor Market Has Weakened, Focus on Powell's Statement This Week - The US July seasonally adjusted non - farm payrolls change was 73,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The non - farm payrolls data for May and June were significantly revised downward, and government employment growth was almost "eliminated." In addition, the US manufacturing and non - manufacturing PMIs were both lower than expected [8][11]. - After the release of the non - farm data, Trump fired the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Fed Chairman Powell will speak at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Annual Meeting on the evening of August 22. His speech will have a significant impact on the trend of gold and silver prices. The market currently expects an 83.1% probability of a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut at the September FOMC meeting, and there is also a pricing for another interest - rate cut in December. The precious metal strategy suggests waiting for Powell's specific statement. If his monetary policy speech is significantly dovish, it is recommended to buy gold and silver on dips [11].