尿素早评：出口预期影响市场-20250820

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report [1] Core Viewpoints - The short - term urea price will fluctuate on the strong side due to the market rumor of China exporting urea to India, which helps relieve the pressure of high domestic supply in the off - season of agricultural demand [1] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Price Data - Futures Prices: On August 19, UR01 closed at 1,817 yuan/ton (up 63 yuan/ton or 3.59% from August 18), UR05 at 1,839 yuan/ton (up 49 yuan/ton or 2.74%), UR09 at 1,783 yuan/ton (up 52 yuan/ton or 3.00%) [1] - Domestic Spot Prices: Spot prices in multiple regions such as Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Northeast, and Jiangsu remained unchanged on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - Spreads: The spread between Shandong spot and UR01 changed from - 60 yuan/ton to - 109 yuan/ton, a change of - 49 yuan/ton; the 01 - 05 spread changed from - 36 yuan/ton to - 22 yuan/ton, an increase of 14 yuan/ton [1] - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged at 1,000 yuan/ton and 900 yuan/ton respectively on August 19 compared to August 18 [1] - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan remained unchanged; the price of melamine in Shandong increased by 31 yuan/ton (0.60%) to 5,225 yuan/ton, while in Jiangsu it remained unchanged at 5,100 yuan/ton [1] 2. Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1,756 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1,826 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1,744 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1,817 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1,789 yuan/ton. The trading volume of 2601 was 213,033 lots [1] 3. Trading Strategy - On the previous trading day, UR increased in position and price, closing at 1,817. The rumor of China exporting urea to India led to an increase in position and price of urea futures, with a gain of over 3%. Given the pattern of strong supply and weak demand in the domestic urea market, the key variable is exports, and opening up exports in the off - season of agricultural demand helps relieve the pressure of high supply [1]