Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - There is no specific industry - wide investment rating provided in the report. However, for individual varieties, ratings are as follows: Gold - ★ (suggesting long - term strategic allocation), Silver - ★ (short - term attention to support level, long - term long), Copper - ★ (long - term bullish), Zinc - ★ (short - term bearish, long - term wait for shorting opportunity), Lead - ★★ (short - term bearish), Tin - ★ (short - term rebound), Aluminum - ★★ (short - term bearish), Nickel - ★★ (short - term bearish), Industrial Silicon - ★ (short - term bearish), Polysilicon - ★ (high - level shock, callback to buy), Lithium Carbonate - ★ (high - level shock, hold long positions) [1] Group 2: Core Views - Gold: Short - term, due to the significant progress in the Russia - Ukraine issue and the decline of risk - aversion sentiment, the disk lacks upward momentum. Long - term, with the loose monetary policies of major countries, central banks' continuous gold purchasing, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern, there is a need for asset allocation in gold, so it should be strategically allocated [1]. - Silver: Short - term, there are concerns about liquidity, and it is more elastic. It is affected by gold fluctuations. Long - term, with strong global liquidity and re - industrialization demand and limited supply increase, the upward trend is unchanged. Short - term, pay attention to the performance around 9150, and long - term, go long [1]. - Copper: Short - term, the upcoming global central bank annual meeting and the possible hawkish statement of Powell may suppress the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation, causing the US dollar to rebound and copper prices to be under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Long - term, as an important strategic resource in the Sino - US game, with the shortage of copper concentrates and the explosion of green copper demand, it is bullish [1][7]. - Zinc: Short - term, due to insufficient demand and inventory accumulation, the Shanghai zinc is under pressure and in a weak shock. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, waiting for shorting opportunities on rebounds [1][11]. - Lead: Short - term, with the recovery of primary lead production and the weakening impact of environmental protection on secondary lead in Anhui, supply is relatively loose, and downstream battery consumption is poor, so lead prices are under pressure [1]. - Tin: Short - term, with the slow recovery of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State and a slight increase in the domestic refined tin smelting industry's start - up, and the tin ingot inventory reaching a high level in the off - season, tin prices show a short - term rebound [1]. - Aluminum: Short - term, with stable bauxite supply at home and abroad, inventory accumulation in domestic mainstream consumption areas during the off - season, and poor performance in terminal consumption and exports, aluminum prices are under pressure [1][15]. - Nickel: Short - term, with the weakening price of nickel ore in the Philippines and the accumulation of domestic refined nickel social inventory, and the weakening of inventory reduction driven by stainless - steel production cuts, nickel prices are under pressure [1][19]. - Industrial Silicon: Short - term, affected by the new energy sector's fluctuations, with no major supply - demand contradiction in itself, it is under obvious pressure from the top and tests the lower support [1]. - Polysilicon: Despite a bearish fundamental outlook and expected inventory accumulation in August, due to the photovoltaic industry symposium held by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, it is expected to be in high - level shock, and buy on callbacks [1]. - Lithium Carbonate: Supply contracts unexpectedly, and with the approaching peak season of terminal demand, wait for the strengthening of the de - stocking drive. Hold long positions. It is in high - level shock in the short term [1][23]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: Global parties are seeking a geopolitical cease - fire, and the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting may have a radical stance, leading to an obvious adjustment in gold and silver prices [2]. - Basic Logic: The market expects Powell to have a radical stance at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting. The US housing starts in July reached a five - month high, contrary to expectations. There is progress in the Russia - Ukraine cease - fire. Short - term, the probability of gold breaking through the range is low, while long - term, gold may continue a long - bull trend due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar's credit, and the reshaping of the geopolitical pattern [3]. - Strategy Recommendation: Gold may have support around 766 in the short term. Pay attention to long - order entry after stabilization. Silver has greater short - term emotional fluctuations and is adjusting downward. Pay attention to the effectiveness of the support at 9000. Also, pay attention to the tri - party meeting of the US, Russia, and Ukraine [4]. Copper - Market Review: LME copper lost the 9700 - level mark, and Shanghai copper was under pressure and declined. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level [6]. - Industrial Logic: Recently, there have been disturbances in copper mines, but the supply of domestic copper concentrate raw materials has improved marginally. With the increase in smelting maintenance in August - September, refined copper production may decline marginally. It is currently the off - season, and downstream demand is weak, but demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. Overseas exchange copper inventory has increased slightly, and domestic social inventory has rebounded slightly. The annual copper supply - demand is in a tight balance [6]. - Strategy Recommendation: With the approaching central bank annual meeting, the US dollar rebounds, and copper prices are under pressure. Pay attention to the support at the 78,000 level. Short - term, it is recommended to wait and see, and then go long lightly after the price stabilizes. Long - term, copper is bullish. Shanghai copper focuses on the range [77500, 79500] yuan/ton, and LME copper focuses on [9650, 9950] US dollars/ton [7]. Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc is in a weak shock, testing the lower - level support [10]. - Industrial Logic: In 2025, the supply of zinc concentrate is abundant. The production of refined zinc in China has increased significantly. The processing fee of zinc concentrate has been rising, and smelter enthusiasm is high. However, due to the tariff increase on galvanized steel in Vietnam and the domestic off - season, the demand of galvanizing enterprises is expected to decline. The spot market transaction is dull, and inventory has accumulated [10]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, due to the off - season and inventory accumulation, zinc is in a weak shock. Hold previous short positions, and some can take profit on dips. Pay attention to the support at the 22000 - level. Long - term, supply increases while demand decreases, so short on rebounds. Shanghai zinc focuses on the range [21800, 22400], and LME zinc focuses on [2700, 2800] US dollars/ton [11]. Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices are under pressure, and alumina prices are falling back [13]. - Industrial Logic: For electrolytic aluminum, overseas macro - trade policies are still uncertain. The cost has decreased, and inventory has increased. The downstream start - up rate has rebounded slightly. For alumina, the rainy season in Guinea may affect the arrival volume in August, and the inventory accumulation speed of mainstream ports is expected to slow down. Domestic alumina production capacity has increased, and inventory has accumulated. Short - term, the supply - demand of alumina is expected to be loose [14]. - Strategy Recommendation: Short - term, look for opportunities to short on rebounds for Shanghai aluminum. Pay attention to the inventory accumulation of aluminum ingots during the off - season. The main operating range is [20000 - 20900] [15]. Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices are running weakly, and stainless - steel prices are under pressure and falling back [17]. - Industrial Logic: Overseas, the price of nickel ore in the Philippines is weak, and NPI smelters are facing cost inversion and losses. Domestic refined nickel production has increased, and inventory has accumulated again. The production cut of stainless - steel has weakened, and the inventory reduction effect is weakening. The terminal market is still in the off - season, and stainless - steel still faces over - supply pressure [18]. - Strategy Recommendation: Look for opportunities to short on rebounds for nickel and stainless - steel. Pay attention to the downstream inventory changes. The main operating range of nickel is [120000 - 123000] [19]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a slight reduction in positions, and closed down 1.79% [21]. - Industrial Logic: The fundamentals have not shown obvious improvement. The total inventory and production have decreased slightly, but the absolute quantity is still at a high level in recent years. After CATL confirmed the shutdown, the market expects the synchronous shutdown of other mines in Jiangxi. With the approaching peak season of terminal demand, downstream material factories start to stock up. The vulnerability of the inventory structure will amplify price elasticity. The main contract of lithium carbonate is expected to rise further after the de - stocking expectation is strengthened [22]. - Strategy Recommendation: There is still an expectation of supply speculation. Hold long positions in the range [86500 - 88000] [23].
中辉有色观点-20250820
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-08-20 01:52