宝城期货国债期货早报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term view of treasury bond futures is weak - side oscillation, and the medium - term view is oscillation. The overall view is oscillation. The reason is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2509 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and overall views are oscillation, and the intraday view is weak - side oscillation. The core logic is that the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased, and the risk appetite of the stock market has risen [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Quotation Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of varieties TL, T, TF, TS is weak - side oscillation, the medium - term view is oscillation, and the reference view is oscillation. The core logic is that treasury bond futures rebounded slightly in oscillation yesterday. On one hand, future policy will focus on structural easing, and the possibility of comprehensive interest rate cuts has decreased. The central bank's second - quarter monetary policy implementation report emphasizes "refinement" and "structure", indicating that future monetary policy will introduce structural easing policies in areas such as inclusive small and micro financial services, financial support for scientific and technological innovation, and financial support for consumption promotion. On the other hand, the risk appetite of the stock market has been rising recently, and the money - making effect of the stock market has attracted funds into the stock market, suppressing the demand for buying treasury bonds. However, due to the continuous recovery of market interest rates, the anchoring effect of policy interest rates is gradually emerging, and the room for further increase in market interest rates is limited. In general, treasury bond futures will operate in a weak - side oscillation in the short term [5].