中辉期货豆粕早报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents Core Views - The short - term trend of soybean meal and rapeseed meal is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions. Palm oil is generally bullish, and the strategy is to go long on dips. Cotton, jujube, and live pigs are cautiously bullish, with specific strategies for each variety [1]. Summary by Variety Soybean Meal - Climate - neutral expectations indicate smooth soybean planting weather in the US. In China, soybeans and soybean meal are in the inventory - building stage, with the inventory - building speed in August expected to slow compared to July. The US Department of Agriculture's August supply - demand report unexpectedly lowered the US soybean planting area but increased the yield per unit, resulting in a decrease in the final US soybean production and ending inventory. The Sino - US trade tariff is a key cost support for soybean meal. Recently, event speculation has cooled down. The short - term trend is bullishly volatile, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][4]. - As of August 15, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.926 million tons, a decrease of 12,000 tons from last week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 6.804 million tons, a decrease of 301,600 tons from last week, a drop of 4.24%. The soybean meal inventory was 1.0147 million tons, an increase of 11,200 tons from last week, an increase of 1.12%. The domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 8.35 days, a decrease of 0.02 days from August 8, a drop of 0.20%. The downstream has started to purchase spot goods to replenish positions. The future supply uncertainty makes feed mills' purchases cautious, but traders' acceptance is okay [3]. Rapeseed Meal - Globally, rapeseed production has recovered year - on - year, but there is a risk of a decrease in the yield per unit of Canadian rapeseed in the new year. In China, the rapeseed inventory of oil mills has decreased month - on - month, while the rapeseed meal inventory has increased month - on - month. The commercial inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level year - on - year. From August to October, rapeseed imports are significantly lower year - on - year, combined with a 100% import tariff on Canadian rapeseed meal, anti - dumping deposits on rapeseed, and the strength of old - crop Canadian rapeseed, which strongly supports the rapeseed meal price. However, the high inventory of granular meal at ports suppresses the market. The short - term trend is bullish, but caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][6]. - As of August 15, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 115,000 tons, a decrease of 23,800 tons from last week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 25,500 tons, a decrease of 6,500 tons from last week; the unexecuted contracts were 55,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from last week [5]. Palm Oil - The biodiesel policies of Indonesia and Malaysia are beneficial to the consumption expectation of the palm oil market, and there is purchasing demand from China and India. In July, Malaysia's palm oil inventory increased but was lower than expected. The export data in the first 15 days of this month was good, boosting the market to a new high. The overall trend is to go long on dips, but attention should be paid to the impact of the Russia - Ukraine negotiation on the crude oil price [1][7]. Cotton - Internationally, the drought in the US cotton - growing area has expanded, and the non - drought rate has dropped significantly. The excellent - good rate of US cotton has increased. Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.935 million tons this year. Domestically, Xinjiang's new cotton is mostly in the boll - splitting stage, and the production is expected to exceed 7.4 million tons. The import volume in July was 50,000 tons. The commercial inventory has decreased. The demand is improving, and the "Golden September and Silver October" stocking market is starting. The short - term focus is on the supply before the new cotton is listed. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish, and those with long positions at low levels should consider partial profit - taking [1][10][11]. Jujube - New - season jujube production is expected to be in the range of 500,000 - 580,000 tons in the 2025/26 season in southern Xinjiang, with a definite reduction in production but a smaller reduction than in 2023/24. The inventory removal speed has accelerated recently. Before November, the speculation around the purchase price is expected to be long, which is beneficial to the bullish trend. The strategy is to go long on dips [1][14]. Live Pigs - In the short term, the planned slaughter volume of Steel Union sample enterprises in August has increased. There is supply pressure from second - fattening. In the medium term, the number of new - born piglets from January to July has increased, indicating potential growth in slaughter volume in the second half of the year. In the long term, the inventory of breeding sows remains high, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand is gradually recovering. The short - term pressure on the spot market remains, but the far - month contracts may rise due to the capacity reduction of leading enterprises. It is not recommended to short - sell blindly in the short term. Consider going long on far - month contracts on dips or conducting reverse arbitrage operations [1][16][17].