中辉期货热卷早报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel Products (including rebar and hot-rolled coil): Cautiously bearish [1] - Iron Ore: Short-term participation [1] - Coke: Cautiously bearish [1] - Coking Coal: Cautiously bearish [1] - Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon): Cautiously bearish [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - Rebar: High production due to good furnace profits, weak demand, and expected looser supply-demand after lower-than-expected production cuts. Market sentiment has cooled, but policy interference may occur [1][4]. - Hot-rolled Coil: Slightly increased production, apparent demand, and inventory, with a generally stable fundamental situation. Production cuts have limited impact, and supply-demand tends to be loose. Futures are weak, but short-term downside may be limited [1][4]. - Iron Ore: Slightly increased pig iron production, higher arrivals and shipments of foreign ores, and increased inventories at ports and steel mills. The weak economic data in July and the off-season characteristics of finished products drag down the ore price, which fluctuates weakly with steel prices [1][8]. - Coke: The spot price has started the seventh round of increases but may face resistance from steel mills. Coke enterprises' profits have improved, and the supply-demand is relatively balanced. The "anti-involution" atmosphere has faded, and coking coal prices are weakening [1][12]. - Coking Coal: Domestic production is flat, Mongolian coal imports have increased significantly, and the inventory transfer speed has slowed down. Pig iron production remains high, and raw material demand is stable. Market sentiment has cooled, and futures prices have a downward correction space [1][16]. - Ferromanganese: The fundamental situation is becoming looser, with short-term demand resilience. Total inventory is decreasing, but the absolute level is still high. Manganese ore shipments have increased, and port inventory is stable [1][20]. - Ferrosilicon: The fundamental situation is becoming looser, with high enterprise inventory and increased warehouse receipts. Supply pressure is obvious [1][20]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel Products - Price Information: Rebar futures prices have declined, and spot prices in various regions have also decreased. Hot-rolled coil futures and spot prices show a similar downward trend, with some regional differences [2]. - Operation Suggestions: For rebar, avoid excessive short selling due to potential policy interference. For hot-rolled coil, it is advisable to wait and see as the short-term downside may be limited [5]. Iron Ore - Price Information: Iron ore futures prices have slightly declined, and spot prices of various ore types have also decreased. There are changes in spreads, basis, and freight rates [6]. - Operation Suggestions: Short-term participation [9]. Coke - Price and Data Information: Coke futures prices have small fluctuations, and spot prices remain stable. Production, inventory, and profit data show that the supply-demand is relatively balanced, and coke enterprises' profits have improved [11]. - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bearish [13]. Coking Coal - Price and Data Information: Coking coal futures prices have changed, and spot prices are mostly stable. Production, inventory, and other data show that the inventory transfer speed has slowed down, and market sentiment has cooled [15]. - Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bearish [17]. Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Price Information: Futures and spot prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon have declined. There are changes in basis and spreads [19]. - Operation Suggestions: For both ferromanganese and ferrosilicon, short-term short selling can be considered as the overall trend has reversed, although short-term rebounds may occur after over - selling [21].