LPG：近月挤仓风险仍在，丙烯：成本支撑偏弱

Report Summary 1. Report Title and Date - The report is titled "LPG: Near-term Squeeze Risk Still Exists" and was published on August 20, 2025 [1]. 2. Analysts and Contact Information - Chen Xinchao, with investment consulting qualification number Z0020238, is the main analyst, and his email is chenxinchao@gtht.com. Zhao Shucen, with futures qualification number F03147780, is the contact person, and his email is zhaoshucen@gtht.com [2]. 3. Core Viewpoints - The near - term squeeze risk for LPG still exists, and the cost support for propylene is weak [1][2]. 4. Fundamental Data 4.1 Futures Prices | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Daily Increase | Night - session Closing Price | Night - session Increase | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PG2509 | 3,851 | - 0.26% | 3,843 | - 0.21% | | PG2510 | 4,319 | - 0.30% | 4,277 | - 0.97% | | PL2601 | 6,451 | - 0.63% | 6,378 | - 1.13% | | PL2602 | 6,500 | - 0.38% | 6,433 | - 1.03% | [2] 4.2 Trading Volume and Open Interest | Contract | Yesterday's Trading Volume | Change from Previous Day | Yesterday's Open Interest | Change from Previous Day | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | PG2509 | 66,824 | - 9147 | 64,241 | - 9558 | | PG2510 | 45,607 | - 1640 | 98,096 | 615 | | PL2601 | 1,369 | 580 | 4,036 | - 96 | | PL2602 | 13 | 6 | 857 | - 2 | [2] 4.3 Price Spreads | Spread Type | Yesterday's Spread | Previous Day's Spread | | --- | --- | --- | | Guangzhou domestic gas to PG09 contract spread | 599 | 569 | | Guangzhou imported gas to PG09 contract spread | 679 | 639 | | Shandong propylene to PL01 contract spread | - 41 | - 67 | | East China propylene to PL01 contract spread | - 26 | - 67 | | South China propylene to PL01 contract spread | - 76 | - 117 | [2] 4.4 Key Industrial Chain Data | Data Type | This Week | Last Week | | --- | --- | --- | | PDH operating rate | 76.3% | 73.8% | | MTBE operating rate | 63.4% | 66.6% | | Alkylation operating rate | 49.0% | 50.0% | [2] 5. Trend Intensity - LPG trend intensity is 0, and propylene trend intensity is 0. The range of trend intensity is an integer in the [- 2,2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [6]. 6. Market Information 6.1 Saudi CP Expectations - On August 18, 2025, the September Saudi CP expectation for propane was 517 dollars/ton, down 2 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 487 dollars/ton, also down 2 dollars/ton. The October Saudi CP expectation for propane was 532 dollars/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day; for butane, it was 502 dollars/ton, also unchanged [7]. 6.2 Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plans - Multiple domestic enterprises have PDH device maintenance plans, including Henan Huasong New Material Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd., etc., with different start and end dates [8]. 6.3 Domestic LPG Factory Device Maintenance Plans - Many domestic LPG factories have device maintenance plans, such as Shengli Oilfield in Shandong, Zhenghua Petrochemical in Shandong, etc., with different start and end dates and production losses [8].