合成橡胶：短线回调，中期仍为区间震荡

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term prices are approaching the upper limit of fundamental valuation and will gradually face pressure, while the medium - term trend remains range - bound. In the short term, the increase in butadiene arrivals eases the tight port situation, weakening the support for the synthetic rubber industry chain, so the upward pressure on butadiene rubber is expected to gradually increase. In the medium term, the market is not keen on short - selling at the low valuation of butadiene rubber. There are two main reasons: first, the anti - involution policy, although not radical in the short term, has a long - term policy orientation, which supports the overall valuation of commodities; second, the fundamentals of the rubber sector and butadiene are neutral, and the continuous de - stocking of synthetic rubber for several weeks and the lack of obvious sales pressure on butadiene rubber factories support the pricing [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Market: For the butadiene rubber main contract (10 contract), the daily closing price was 11,840 yuan/ton (up 40 yuan from the previous day), the trading volume was 101,941 lots (up 40,936 lots), the open interest was 35,780 lots (up 4,178 lots), and the trading volume was 604.973 million yuan (up 244.592 million yuan). The basis of Shandong butadiene - futures main contract was - 90 (down 40), the monthly spread of BR09 - BR10 (private) was - 10 (down 5). The prices of North China, East China, and South China butadiene rubber (private) all increased by 100 yuan [1]. - Spot Market: The market price of Shandong butadiene rubber (delivery product) remained unchanged at 11,750 yuan. The price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1502) remained unchanged at 12,350 yuan, while the price of Qilu styrene - butadiene rubber (model 1712) increased by 100 yuan to 11,350 yuan. The mainstream price of butadiene in Jiangsu decreased by 50 yuan to 9,350 yuan, and the mainstream price in Shandong increased by 10 yuan to 9,450 yuan [1]. - Fundamentals: The butadiene rubber operating rate remained at 67.9045%, the theoretical full cost of butadiene rubber remained at 12,182 yuan/ton, and the profit of butadiene rubber remained at - 282 yuan/ton [1]. 3.2 Inventory Situation - As of August 13, 2025 (week 33), the inventory of Chinese high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 30,400 tons, a decrease of 1,000 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.18%. Due to the unstable output of previously shut - down devices and the influence of stronger raw materials and natural rubber, the inventory level continued to decline [1]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of synthetic rubber is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [3].