宝城期货甲醇早报-20250820

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Report's Core View - The methanol 2601 contract is expected to show a weakening trend. In the short - term, medium - term, and intraday, it will be in a state of shock, with an intraday weakening shock. The core reason is that the coal price is weakening, and the methanol supply - demand structure is weak [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Morning Meeting Minutes - For the methanol 2601 contract, the short - term view is shock, the medium - term view is shock, the intraday view is shock and weakening, and the reference view is weakening operation. The core logic is that the coal price is weakening, causing the methanol to shock and weaken [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Commodity Futures Energy and Chemical Sector - The intraday view of methanol is shock and weakening, and the medium - term view is shock. The reference view is weakening operation. As the previous macro - driving force weakens, methanol returns to a market dominated by a weak supply - demand structure. Currently, the supply pressure of domestic and foreign methanol is still high, and downstream demand is in the off - season. The weak supply - demand structure causes the price center to face a downward shift. Although the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract had an oversold rebound on Tuesday night, with the price rising slightly by 0.50% to 2398 yuan/ton, it lacks the power to continue rising. It is expected that the domestic methanol futures 2601 contract will maintain a shock and weakening trend on Wednesday [5].