宝城期货原油早报-20250820

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1][5] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The short - term view of crude oil 2510 is weak, the medium - term view is oscillating, the intraday view is oscillating and weak, and it is expected to run weakly with a dominant bearish atmosphere [1] - For crude oil (SC), the intraday view is oscillating and strong, the medium - term view is oscillating, and it is expected to run strongly. However, considering the supply - demand situation, it is expected that the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract may maintain an oscillating and weak trend on Wednesday [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Content Crude Oil 2510 - Short - term: Oscillating and weak [1] - Medium - term: Oscillating [1] - Intraday: Oscillating and weak [1] - View reference: Weak operation [1] - Core logic: The bearish atmosphere is dominant [1] Crude Oil (SC) - Intraday view: Oscillating and strong [5] - Medium - term view: Oscillating [5] - View reference: Strong operation [5] - Core logic: The IEA reports that due to slow demand growth and a surge in supply, with OPEC + increasing production, the global crude oil market will face a record supply glut next year. Although the IEA has raised the global crude oil demand data for this year and next, the demand growth rate has declined, less than half of that in 2023. Crude oil inventories will accumulate at a rate of 2.96 million barrels per day, exceeding the average accumulation rate during the 2020 pandemic. As the Russia - Ukraine conflict is expected to end, the geopolitical premium will be reversed. After the previous bearish sentiment was released, the domestic crude oil futures 2510 contract maintained an oscillating and weak trend on Tuesday night, with the futures price slightly down 0.87% to 480.9 yuan/barrel [5]