白糖：7月进口量同比大幅增加

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The report presents the latest fundamental data, macro and industry news of the sugar market, and provides production, consumption and import forecasts for the domestic and international sugar markets in the 24/25 and 25/26 sugar - crushing seasons. The trend strength of sugar is rated as neutral. 3) Summary by Directory Fundamental Tracking - The price of raw sugar is 16.3 cents per pound, with a year - on - year increase of 0.06; the mainstream spot price is 5990 yuan per ton, with no year - on - year change; the futures main contract price is 5661 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 11 [1]. - The 91 spread is 55 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 9; the 15 spread is 42 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year decrease of 4; the mainstream spot basis is 329 yuan per ton, with a year - on - year increase of 11 [1]. Macro and Industry News - Brazil's sugar production needs to be re - estimated, and the monsoon precipitation in India has weakened stage - by - stage. The sugar - crushing progress in the central - southern region of Brazil accelerated in the first half of July. Brazil exported 336 million tons of sugar in June, a year - on - year increase of 5%. China imported 74 million tons of sugar in July, an increase of 32 million tons compared with the previous period [1]. Domestic Market - CAOC expects the domestic sugar production in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season to be 1.116 billion tons, consumption to be 1.58 billion tons, and imports to be 500 million tons. For the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, production is expected to be 1.12 billion tons, consumption 1.59 billion tons, and imports 500 million tons [2]. - As of the end of May in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, the national sugar production was 1.116 billion tons, an increase of 120 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales were 811 million tons, an increase of 152 million tons; the cumulative sugar sales rate was 72.7% [2]. - As of the end of July in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, China's cumulative sugar imports were 324 million tons, a decrease of 34 million tons. In the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the market expects a decline in the sugar - extraction rate and an increase in production costs in Guangxi [2]. International Market - ISO expects a global sugar supply shortage of 547 million tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season (previously 488 million tons) [3]. - As of July 16 in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, the cumulative sugar - cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil decreased by 9.6 percentage points year - on - year, with cumulative sugar production of 1.566 billion tons, a decrease of 159 million tons, and the cumulative MIX51.02% increased by 2.69 percentage points year - on - year [3]. - ISMA/NFCSF expects the total sugar production in India to be 3.49 billion tons in the 25/26 sugar - crushing season, compared with 2.95 billion tons in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season, an increase of 540 million tons [3]. - OCSB data shows that the cumulative sugar production in Thailand in the 24/25 sugar - crushing season was 1.008 billion tons, an increase of 127 million tons [3]. Trend Strength The trend strength of sugar is 0, indicating a neutral outlook. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4].