工业硅：情绪转弱，多晶硅：市场消息发酵，情绪提振

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is dated August 20, 2025, and focuses on industrial silicon and polysilicon [1] Group 2: Investment Ratings - There is no specific report industry investment rating provided in the content Group 3: Core Views - Industrial silicon sentiment has weakened, with a trend intensity of -1; polysilicon sentiment has been boosted by market news, with a trend intensity of 1 [1][4] Group 4: Fundamental Data Summary Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2511 closing price is 8,625 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan from T - 5 and 70 yuan from T - 22; PS2511 closing price is 52,280 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 1 and 705 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Si2511 trading volume is 438,313 lots, down 72,937 lots from T - 1, 82,191 lots from T - 5, and 1,266,686 lots from T - 22; PS2511 trading volume is 425,548 lots, down 194,013 lots from T - 1 and 167,274 lots from T - 5 [2] - Si2511 open interest is 286,605 lots, down 11,014 lots from T - 1 but up 7,745 lots from T - 5, and down 100,647 lots from T - 22; PS2511 open interest is 135,517 lots, down 3,206 lots from T - 1 and 4,222 lots from T - 5 [2] Basis - Industrial silicon spot premium (against East China Si5530) is +795 yuan/ton, up 195 yuan from T - 5 and 130 yuan from T - 22; polysilicon spot premium (against N - type re - feed) is - 5,260 yuan/ton, down 460 yuan from T - 5 and 1,655 yuan from T - 22 [2] Price - Xinjiang 99 - silicon price is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 100 yuan from T - 5; Yunnan Si4210 price is 9,950 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 50 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Polysilicon - N - type re - feed price is 47,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 and T - 5 but up 1,000 yuan from T - 22 [2] Profit - Silicon plant profit (Xinjiang new standard 553) is - 2,676 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1 but down 625 yuan from T - 5; silicon plant profit (Yunnan new standard 553) is - 3,355 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan from T - 1 but down 566 yuan from T - 5 [2] - Polysilicon enterprise profit is - 16.9 yuan/kg, up 0.4 yuan from T - 1 and T - 5 but down 14.5 yuan from T - 22 [2] Inventory - Industrial silicon - social inventory (including warehouse receipt inventory) is 54.5 million tons, down 0.2 million tons from T - 5 and T - 22; industrial silicon - enterprise inventory (sample enterprises) is 17.1 million tons, up 0.11 million tons from T - 5 but down 0.3 million tons from T - 22 [2] - Polysilicon - manufacturer inventory is 24.2 million tons, up 0.9 million tons from T - 5 but down 0.7 million tons from T - 22 [2] Raw Material Cost - Xinjiang silicon ore price is 340 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; Yunnan silicon ore price is 320 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22 [2] - Xinjiang washed coking coal price is 1,250 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1, T - 5, and T - 22; Ningxia washed coking coal price is 970 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan from T - 5 and 95 yuan from T - 22 [2] Organic Silicon, Aluminum Alloy - DMC price is 11,000 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but down 1,000 yuan from T - 5; DMC enterprise profit is - 1,032 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan from T - 1 but down 872 yuan from T - 5 [2] - ADC12 price is 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged from T - 1 but up 100 yuan from T - 5; recycled aluminum enterprise profit is - 240 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan from T - 1 but up 150 yuan from T - 5 [2] Group 5: Macro and Industry News - T1 Energy signed an agreement to purchase purified polysilicon and solar wafers produced by Corning at its Michigan manufacturing park, with wafer deliveries expected to start in the second half of 2026 [4] - The US has 25 GW of active polysilicon refining capacity, 2 GW of cell capacity, and 57.5 GW of module capacity, but no polysilicon ingot or wafer capacity [4]