Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report Macroeconomics - Domestically, although the economic growth rate is showing a marginal slowdown, there is no need for excessive anxiety. A package of economic - stabilizing policies are gradually taking effect, and fiscal expenditure is accelerating. The trend of future economic data remains uncertain and requires continuous tracking of high - frequency data [1]. - Overseas, the possibility of a September interest rate cut remains uncertain. Attention should be focused on changes in US economic data and the policy signals released by Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting [2]. Financial Futures - Stock Index: The stock market is in a stage of long - short game. Yesterday, the stock market as a whole pulled back, and the pressure line of the index was not successfully broken. If the trading volume narrows in the future, the decline of small - cap indexes may also widen. Short - term attention should be paid to market sentiment and trading volume adjustment near key points [3]. - Treasury Bonds: The bond market showed a weak rebound on Tuesday. If the stock market continues to fluctuate, it will be beneficial for the bond market to stabilize. However, if the stock market rises after consolidation, it will suppress the bond market. It remains to be seen whether the bond market can bottom out [3]. - Container Shipping: The freight index (European Line) futures prices showed a trend of first decline and then rebound. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate, and some contracts may rebound at low levels [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver: Medium - to long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak. The strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - Copper: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, and it is recommended to make low - level purchases [10]. - Aluminum Industry Chain: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate. It is advisable to consider long - alloy and short - aluminum arbitrage when the price difference widens [11][13]. - Zinc: Prices are in a weak state, and short - term trading is mainly range - bound. Consider selling the outer market and buying the inner market for arbitrage [13]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - Tin: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - Lead: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: The fundamentals of steel are weakening, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and inventory accumulation accelerating. Steel prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - Iron Ore: The market is trading on weak demand rather than production restrictions. Iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coal - coke market may fluctuate widely with market sentiment. In the future, attention should be paid to the inventory changes of finished steel products [22][23]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline. It is recommended to wait and see [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating. There is an increased risk of a medium - term downward break, and short - term geopolitical developments need to be tracked [25][26]. - LPG: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the current situation is mainly a game in the near - term contracts [26][28]. - PTA - PX: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - Methanol: Wait for the opportunity to go long. It is advisable to consider laying out long positions in the far - month contracts after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - PP: Prices are in a weak range - bound state. The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - PE: Prices are in a range - bound state in the short term, and the future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Prices are in a range - bound state. For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - Fuel Oil: Prices remain weak, and the short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The crack spread is strengthening, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - Asphalt: The price center has shifted downward. In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500. Consider widening the price difference between deep - colored and light - colored rubber on dips [43][45]. - Urea: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: - Soda Ash: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to the price fluctuations of coal and raw salt [47][48]. - Glass: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - Caustic Soda: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - Pulp: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - Logs: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51]. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomics - Domestic: The cumulative growth rate of the national general public budget from January to July turned positive for the first time, and stamp duty increased by 20.7%. Fiscal expenditure is accelerating, and economic - stabilizing policies are taking effect [1]. - Overseas: The possibility of a September interest rate cut in the US remains uncertain. The Jackson Hole Annual Meeting is an important window to observe policy trends [2]. Financial Futures Stock Index - Market Review: Yesterday, the stock index pulled back with reduced trading volume, and small - cap indexes had relatively smaller decline rates. The trading volume of the two markets decreased by 175.794 billion yuan [3]. - Important Information: From September 1, new conditions for personal pension withdrawals will be added [3]. - Core Logic: The index pressure line was not broken, and the large - cap index declined more. If trading volume narrows, small - cap indexes may also decline more [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market Performance: On Tuesday, bond futures fluctuated at a low level and finally closed up across the board, showing a weak rebound [3]. - Core Logic: The central bank made large - scale injections, and the bond market got a breather due to the stock market's consolidation. Whether the bond market can bottom out remains to be seen [3]. Container Shipping - Market Review: Yesterday, the container shipping index (European Line) futures prices first declined slightly and then rebounded [4][6]. - Important Information: Hamas made concessions on the cease - fire plan, and some shipping companies adjusted their European Line quotes [4][5]. - Core Logic: Geopolitical risks decreased, but the reduction in the decline of MSK's European Line spot - cabin quotes was positive for prices. EC is likely to continue to fluctuate [4][6]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Gold & Silver - Market Review: On Tuesday, the precious metals market was in a weak state. COMEX gold 2512 contract closed at $3,358.9 per ounce, down 0.57%; US silver 2509 contract closed at $37.33 per ounce, down 1.84% [7]. - Core Logic: Market focus is on the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. Long - term trends may be bullish, while short - term trends are weak [7][9]. - Copper - Market Review: The Shanghai copper index was in a range - bound state on Tuesday, with low trading volume and stable decline in open interest [10]. - Core Logic: Short - term prices are likely to continue to fluctuate, and the previous support level can be raised [10]. - Aluminum Industry Chain - Market Review: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20,545 yuan per ton, down 0.19% [10]. - Core Logic: Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate; alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile; casting aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate [11][13]. - Zinc - Market Review: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,205 yuan per ton, down 0.69% [13]. - Core Logic: Supply is gradually shifting from tight to surplus, demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term range - bound trading [13]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel - Market Review: The main contract of Shanghai nickel closed at 120,330 yuan per ton, down 0.37%; the main contract of stainless steel closed at 12,885 yuan per ton, down 1.07% [14]. - Core Logic: Prices continue to correct, but there is still fundamental support [14]. - Tin - Market Review: The Shanghai tin index strengthened in the afternoon on Tuesday, closing at 26.8 yuan per ton [14]. - Core Logic: Prices are mainly in a range - bound state, with a relatively strong bias [15][16]. - Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Market Review: On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon futures closed at 8,625 yuan per ton, up 0.23% [16]. - Core Logic: Polysilicon is expected to be in a range - bound and slightly bullish state, and industrial silicon will also be boosted [16][17]. - Lead - Market Review: The previous trading day, the main contract of Shanghai lead closed at 16,825 yuan per ton, up 0.30% [17]. - Core Logic: Prices have limited upside and downside potential and are mainly in a range - bound state [17]. Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Review: Prices are in a weak downward trend [20]. - Important Information: Steel mills adjusted scrap purchase prices, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [20]. - Core Logic: Supply increases, demand decreases, inventory accumulates, and prices are expected to be in a range - bound and weakening state [20][21]. - Iron Ore - Market Review: Iron ore prices are in a weak state, with five consecutive days of decline [21]. - Important Information: There are vehicle restrictions and an increase in blast furnace maintenance in Hebei [21]. - Core Logic: The market is trading on weak demand, and iron ore prices are expected to be in a range - bound state [21]. - Coking Coal and Coke - Market Review: Prices are in a range - bound and declining state [21]. - Important Information: There are rainfall and high - temperature weather, and some steel mills received environmental protection production restriction notices [22]. - Core Logic: The market may fluctuate widely with sentiment, and attention should be paid to finished steel inventory changes [22][23]. - Silicon Iron and Silicon Manganese - Market Review: Supply is increasing, and prices may decline [23]. - Core Logic: Supply pressure is increasing, and prices may decline due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [23][24]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil - Market Review: Overnight, the crude oil futures prices declined slightly [25]. - Important Information: There are developments in the geopolitical situation and changes in oil - buying sources in India [25]. - Core Logic: Geopolitical support is weakening, and fundamental bearish factors are accumulating [25][26]. - LPG - Market Review: LPG futures prices declined slightly [26]. - Important Information: Some refineries had maintenance and restart operations [27]. - Core Logic: Fundamentals have not changed significantly, and it is a near - term contract game [26][28]. - PTA - PX - Market Review: PX - PTA prices are in a range - bound state [29]. - Core Logic: In the short term, the supply - demand contradiction is not significant, and it is recommended to widen the PTA processing margin on dips [29][31]. - Methanol - Market Review: The methanol 09 contract declined [32]. - Core Logic: Wait for the opportunity to go long after port cargo diversion or an increase in storage fees [32][33]. - PP - Market Review: PP prices are in a weak range - bound state [34]. - Core Logic: The future trend depends on demand changes [34][35]. - PE - Market Review: PE prices are in a range - bound state [36]. - Core Logic: The future trend depends on the progress of downstream demand recovery [36][37]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Review: Prices are in a range - bound state [37][38]. - Core Logic: For styrene, short - term unilateral short - selling should be cautious, and consider narrowing the price difference between pure benzene and styrene on rallies [37][39]. - Fuel Oil - Market Review: Fuel oil prices remain weak [39]. - Core Logic: The short - term driving force is downward [39][40]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Market Review: The crack spread is strengthening [40]. - Core Logic: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [40][41]. - Asphalt - Market Review: Asphalt prices have declined [42]. - Core Logic: In the short term, the fundamentals have weakened, and in the long - term, attention should be paid to the progress of specific "anti - involution" measures for the asphalt industry chain [42][43]. - Rubber & 20 - Number Rubber - Market Review: Rubber prices declined [43]. - Core Logic: RU2501 is expected to be in a weak range - bound state. Pay attention to the support level around 15,500 [43][45]. - Urea - Market Review: Urea prices rose [46]. - Core Logic: Prices are in a pattern with support below and pressure above, and the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1,650 and 1,850 [46][47]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda - Soda Ash - Market Review: The soda ash 2601 contract declined [47]. - Core Logic: The supply - demand pattern of strong supply and weak demand remains unchanged [47][48]. - Glass - Market Review: The glass 2601 contract declined [49]. - Core Logic: The market is in a weak equilibrium state. Pay attention to policy instructions and short - term emotional changes [49]. - Caustic Soda - Market Review: The caustic soda 2601 contract declined [50]. - Core Logic: Pay attention to the improvement of downstream demand and the enthusiasm for downstream inventory replenishment [50]. - Pulp - Market Review: The main contract of pulp declined [50]. - Core Logic: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [50][51]. - Logs - Market Review: The main contract of logs declined [51]. - Core Logic: Prices are in a reasonable range - bound state, with limited possibility of significant price changes [51].
金融期货早评-20250820
Nan Hua Qi Huo·2025-08-20 02:15