铅锌日评：区间整理-20250820

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The lead market shows no significant contradictions with both supply and demand increasing. Supported by tight raw materials and peak - season expectations, the short - term lead price is expected to move in a range [1]. - For the zinc market, considering the macro situation and the increase in both zinc ore and zinc ingot supply during the off - season of demand, with continued inventory accumulation in the domestic market and a continuous decline in overseas LME zinc inventory providing some support, the short - term zinc price is also expected to move in a range [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots remained flat compared to the previous day, while the closing price of the Shanghai lead futures main contract rose 0.30% from the previous day. The LME3 - month lead futures (electronic) closed at $1,973.50 per ton, up 0.13%. The trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 10.92%, and the open interest decreased by 2.80%. The LME lead inventory remained unchanged, while the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt inventory decreased by 1.40%. The Shanghai - London lead price ratio increased by 0.17% [1]. - Industry News: Some small - scale secondary lead smelters in South China stopped production due to losses and stopped purchasing waste lead - acid batteries. They plan to resume production when the raw material inventory reaches around 5,000 tons. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of $44 per ton, and the open interest decreased by 522 to 159,114 contracts [1]. - Fundamentals: There is no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, and processing fees are likely to rise. Primary lead smelters that had maintenance are gradually resuming production, with stable - to - increasing production. In the secondary lead sector, due to high waste battery prices, limited supply, and strong hoarding sentiment among recyclers, some smelters have reduced or stopped production, resulting in relatively low overall production. The demand side shows no significant improvement, with dealers mainly consuming inventory and producers producing based on sales [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Data: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased by 0.45% from the previous day, and the closing price of the Shanghai zinc futures main contract decreased by 0.60%. The trading volume of the active futures contract increased by 37.72%, and the open interest increased by 51.62%. The LME zinc inventory remained unchanged, and the Shanghai zinc warehouse receipt inventory also remained unchanged. The LME3 - month zinc futures (electronic) closed at $2,770 per ton, down 0.25%. The Shanghai - London zinc price ratio decreased by 0.35% [1]. - Industry News: Peru's Romina zinc project has reached 50% completion and is expected to be officially put into production in Q2 2026. A zinc smelter in the northwest plans to continue its maintenance from September to October, with the expected impact to be made up in November - December. On August 18, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a discount of $8.65 per ton, and the open interest increased by 3,010 to 193,998 contracts [1]. - Fundamentals: Zinc smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The production of zinc is showing an upward trend. On the demand side, downstream enterprises mainly consume existing inventory, but due to concerns about future production cuts, some terminals have stockpiled goods, leading to a rebound in galvanizing production [1].